Etō out, Koizumi in
Shinjirō gets a hard job
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After his disappointing third-place finish in the 2024 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election, Koizumi Shinjirō took a step back from the spotlight. A loyal supporter of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, Koizumi has been backing the prime minister from the backbenches and in party councils but has been relatively less visible.
But now he has been pulled into the Ishiba government and given a critical portfolio, replacing Etō Taku as minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries after he was forced out due to an ill-considered remark about not needing to buy rice because he gets so much for free, a particularly tin-eared comment that prompted references to Marie Antoinette.
For Ishiba, the appeal of appointing Koizumi is obvious. As the latest opinion polls show – discussed here – the public is deeply dissatisfied with the government’s handling of cost-of-living increases, an rising rice prices in particular. From my earlier post:
Instead, the biggest liability for Ishiba remains inflation. The government’s marks on combating cost-of-living increases are bleak. In Asahi, only 12% approve of the government’s response to inflation; 79% disapprove. The government’s handling of rice price increases especially – namely releasing rice from government stockpiles – also received poor marks: only 12% approval in Mainichi and 15% in Yomiuri, while only 27% of respondents in Asahi said that they expect the government’s approach to lower prices and 87.1% of respondents in Kyodo rated the government’s response as “insufficient.” To the extent that cost-of-living issues are the single-most important issue for voters, the government’s handling of inflation – whether or not it embraces a consumption tax cut – remains a significant drag on the LDP’s prospects in July.
In Koizumi, Ishiba has tapped both a skilled communicator and a lawmaker who has actually worked extensively on agricultural issues during his career — though his tenure as head of the LDP’s agricultural policy committee during the Abe years pitted him against JA in a battle over agricultural reform — to improve the government’s fortunes on a critical issue ahead of the upper house elections. Ishiba used the opportunity of replacing Etō, a member of the LDP’s agricultural policy zoku, with Koizumi to signal a fresh start for his government, announcing that the government will aim to reduce rice prices to below JPY 4,000/five kilograms, starting by switching from auctioning government stockpiles to negotiating fixed contracts in the near term.1 Koizumi also suggested that the government could consider selling rice from government stockpiles directly to retailers. Both Ishiba and Koizumi spoke Wednesday of the need for further reforms to the system of agricultural subsidies, following the 2018 reforms that phased out the gentan crop reduction system.2 Koizumi, picking up a theme from his campaign last year, spoke of the need for a “sense of urgency” in reducing rice prices. Whether Ishiba and Koizumi can succeed, Ishiba raised the stakes of the issue on Wednesday, saying in response to a question from Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Tamaki Yūichirō in the parliamentary leaders’ debate that he would “have to take responsibility” if the government is unable to meet this target for reducing prices.
Of course, the risks for Koizumi in taking this post are greater. To the extent that he is now — as he suggested Wednesday — the “minister for rice” (or rice prices), he will now bear considerable responsible for reversing Ishiba’s and the LDP’s fortunes ahead of the upper house elections. Indeed, he may, for better or worse, become the face of the government’s food inflation policies over the next two months, suggesting that he could take a disproportionate share of the blame if the LDP performs poorly at the ballot box. But really, what choice did he have? Between his past interest in agriculture, his appetite to take on difficult issues,3 his support for Ishiba, and his persistent argument that the government has to tackle inflation to prevail in the upper house elections, it makes sense that he would take on what could be a thankless job. And if he does actually manage to make some headway on the issue, it could help burnish his reputation as a more serious problem solver willing to tackle hard things.
That said, perhaps the biggest challenge awaiting Ishiba and Koizumi is not the rice prices at all but an opposition that is prepared to go on the offensive after forcing Ishiba to abandon Etō. As documented at length by Mainichi here, it was the threat of a successful no-confidence motion against the minister that forced Ishiba to dismiss him only a day after saying that Etō should stay. Undoubtedly this movement by the opposition was a meaningful reminder that the opposition parties, if they unite to pass a no-confidence motion against the government, could fundamentally scramble the political situation — and, between the rice issue, pension reform, and trade talks with the United States, they may have ample justification to use it sometime before the Diet session ends on 22 June. Koizumi stepping in for Etō could be only the beginning of what promises to be a wild two months in Japanese politics.
The average retail price as of this week is JPY 4,268.
Ssee also his interest in social security reform and labor reform.