Observing Japan

Observing Japan

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Observing Japan
Observing Japan
Ishiba's policy liabilities loom large in new polls
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Opinion polls

Ishiba's policy liabilities loom large in new polls

The government's support is mostly stable, but the public is dissatisfied with what it's doing on key issues

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Tobias Harris
May 20, 2025
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Observing Japan
Observing Japan
Ishiba's policy liabilities loom large in new polls
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If you are looking for timely, forward-looking analysis of the stories in Japans’s politics and policymaking that move markets, I have launched a new service through my business, Japan Foresight LLC. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or for information on how to sign up for a trial or schedule a briefing, please visit our website or reach out to me.

I joined Bilal Hafeez on the Macro Hive for a conversation about major issues in Japanese politics and my career as a Japan watcher.

I also joined Bloomberg’s “The Asia Trade” to discuss the outlook for the next round of US-Japan trade talks.

All readers can access regularly updated charts of a ten-day moving average of the government’s popularity here:

Polling data

Polling data

Tobias Harris
·
Mar 24
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Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru meets with the Iris Princesses from Itako City, Ibaraki on 16 May. Source: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan

A new wave of opinion polling – new polls from Asahi, Yomiuri, Kyodo, and Mainichi – suggests that the trends apparent in the first wave of polling after Golden Week may be more deeply rooted.

Hope for Ishiba?

Hope for Ishiba?

Tobias Harris
·
May 13
Read full story

While the new polling reversed the modest recovery in net approval (unadjusted for house effects) following Golden Week – dropping more than ten points – the effect was less pronounced when correcting for biases, dropping only 1.5 percentage points to -25. The Ishiba government’s support still looks fairly stable, if significantly underwater.

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