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Warning signs | Today in the Upper House Campaign
Upper House Elections 2025

Warning signs | Today in the Upper House Campaign

Poll after poll suggests that a major political shock could be coming

Tobias Harris's avatar
Tobias Harris
Jul 15, 2025
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Observing Japan
Observing Japan
Warning signs | Today in the Upper House Campaign
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This is the latest update for paid subscribers on the state of the upper house campaign, which will continue through the vote on 20 July.

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Paid subscribers can access my forecast and viewer’s guide at this link:

A guide to the 2025 upper house elections

A guide to the 2025 upper house elections

Tobias Harris
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Jul 7
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A pdf of the report can be purchased here.

If you are looking for timely, forward-looking analysis of the stories in Japans’s politics and policymaking that move markets, I have launched a new service through my business, Japan Foresight LLC. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or for information on how to sign up for a trial or schedule a briefing, please visit our website or reach out to me.

I joined the 14 July edition of Bloomberg’s “The Asia Trade” to discuss the upper house elections and Japan’s trade talks with the US.


The campaign trail

Prime Minister Ishiba addresses a crowd in Aomori prefecture. Source: @shigeruishiba on X

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru was campaigning in single-member districts in Tohoku on Monday, 14 July, stopping in Aomori and Akita. The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) young leaders Koizumi Shinjirō and Kobayashi Takayuki were in Fukushima and Ibaraki, and Hyogo respectively.

Komeitō’s Saitō Tetsuo was in Osaka.

Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leader Noda Yoshihiko campaigned in Fukuoka and Okinawa, appearing in the latter with representatives from other parties, including former Japanese Communist Party (JCP) leader Shii Kazuo. Secretary-General Ogawa Junya was in Miyagi and Aomori.

After starting the day in Okinawa, Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Tamaki Yūichirō campaigned in Kanto, stopping in Kanagawa, two different sites in Tokyo, and Chiba on 14 July.

Ishin no Kai co-leader Yoshimura Hirofumi was in Hyogo, while his partner Maehara Seiji again campaigned in Kyoto.

Sanseitō’s Kamiya Sōhei campaigns in Ehime prefecture on Monday, 14 July. Source: @jinkamiya on X

Sanseitō’s Kamiya Sōhei visited Shikoku’s four prefectures on Monday, stopping in Kochi, Tokushima, Kagawa, and Ehime.

JCP leader Tamura Tomoko was in Chiba.

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