Time to take the CDP’s prospects more seriously
It may not be 2009, but the system looks more competitive
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If there has been one consequence of the 28 April by-elections, it has been the rising prospects of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). The CDP, which appeared to be floundering and certain to fall behind the surging Ishin no Kai in 2023, now has the wind at its back and could pose a serious threat to the ruling coalition’s majority in the next general election. The party, having already nominated candidates for 179 of 289 single-member districts, is racing to nominate more, aiming for at least 200. It is drawing closer to the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) – its fellow offshoot from the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) – working together on policies and exploring possible electoral coordination to reduce the number of constituencies in which their candidates will compete.
To be sure, there remain significant obstacles. As noted above, the party needs to nominate more candidates to even have a chance of taking power. But fielding more candidates also complicates the process of coordinating with other opposition parties. Ishin no Kai already has expressed virtually no interest in cooperating with the CDP, and, as a result, the CDP and Ishin no Kai candidates will likely compete in too many constituencies, which could assist ruling party candidates.1 The CDP, meanwhile, still needs to strike the right balance in its relationship with the Japanese Communist Party. The fewer candidates the JCP runs the better it will be for the CDP’s chances, but if the CDP coordinates too closely with the JCP, it could alienate the DPFP and, more importantly, RENGO, the trade union confederation. Finally, the party’s support is nowhere near the levels the DPJ reached when it was on the brink of taking power in 2009.2
That said, new polls from the Asahi Shimbun, Mainichi Shimbun, and the Yomiuri Shimbun reinforce the notion that the public is more willing to entertain a change of ruling party than at any point since 2012.
Of these, Mainichi’s findings are the most striking. First, the newspaper found, remarkably, that the CDP is more popular than the LDP, with 20% approval to the LDP’s 17%. Second, the poll found that 25% intend to vote for the CDP in the proportional representation voting in the next general election, compared with only 15% for the LDP (and 12% for Ishin no Kai). Third, the poll found that the Kishida government’s number remain abysmal: -54 net approval (20% approval, 74% disapproval), universal disapproval of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s and the LDP’s handling of the kickback scandal, and an overwhelming majority (72%) preferring to see Kishida replaced in the LDP leadership election in September.
Mainichi is, however, an outlier. In the Yomiuri Shimbun poll, the LDP is polling at 27% in both support and voting intentions for the next general election, compared with 7% and 15% respectively for the CDP. The comparable figures in the Asahi Shimbun poll are 24% support and 26% intent to vote for the LDP, versus 6% and 15% for the CDP. However, while Mainichi’s 20% support for the CDP looks like an extreme outlier, its 25% voting intention for the CDP appears to be a less extreme finding.
Maybe the bigger question is where exactly the Kishida government’s and LDP’s support are. Both Asahi and Yomiuri show widespread disapproval of Kishida’s and the LDP’s handling of the scandal. In Yomiuri, only 14% approve of the LDP’s response. Maybe even more importantly, Kishida also received poor marks for his handling of the economy, particularly the weak yen. In Asahi, 72% disapproved of his management of economic policy. In Mainichi, 80% said that the negative effects of the weak yen are larger than the positive effects; only 6% indicated the reverse. In Yomiuri, only 13% expect that their living conditions will improve this year, notwithstanding Kishida’s determination to raise real incomes. Yomiuri’s respondents are also ready for Kishida to be replaced as LDP leader: only 4% favor him in the leadership election, compared with Ishiba Shigeru (22%), Koizumi Shinjirō (16%), Kōno Tarō (10%), Kamikawa Yōko (7%), Takaichi Sanae (7%), and Suga Yoshihide (6%). It may be just as likely that Yomiuri could be an outlier in overstating the government’s and LDP’s levels of support, giving the underlying disapproval of actions both have taken.
Against this backdrop, it is not unthinkable that the CDP is poised to make significant gains in a general election. In Asahi, 54% to 33% say they prefer an opposition-led government; even in Yomiuri, respondents were divided at 42% to 42% on whether they support an LDP-led or an opposition-led government. But CDP leader Izumi Kenta may still want to hold off on measuring drapes for the Kantei. Voters may be more receptive to the CDP, but the opposition party will still have to convince independents to turn out to vote – far from a guarantee, based on the past decade of elections – and, if they do turn out, to vote for the CDP instead of one of the other opposition parties on the ballot. Meanwhile, if the LDP changes leaders in September and calls a general election shortly thereafter, the LDP may be able to arrest some of the CDP’s momentum. And even if the opposition parties were somehow able to deprive the LDP and Kōmeitō of a majority, Ishin no Kai’s enmity towards the CDP makes an LDP- Kōmeitō-Ishin coalition a more likely outcome than a 1993-style non-LDP coalition.
Thus, while it is likely premature to anticipate an outright change of ruling party, the latest polling shows that Kishida and the LDP have created an opening for a return to a more competitive political system. Izumi and his CDP are doing their best to take advantage of the opportunity.
