This week in Japanese politics, no. 2
The kickback scandal moves to the upper house, Koike returns? (somehow), the government sees continuing growth in foreign workers, the LDP and Kōmeitō near an agreement on arms exports, and more
This is a new feature for Observing Japan, in which I provide a weekly roundup of both major developments in Japan’s politics and policymaking and important stories that might have been overlooked.
It was a busy week in Japan’s politics, with more debate in the Diet and the LDP about the kickback scandal, maneuvering around the 28 April by-elections, and drama in the LDP-Kōmeitō negotiations on arms control exports. Plus Kishida passed a postwar giant on the list of longest-serving prime ministers and will be speaking to the US Congress next month.
Politics
The upper house’s budget committee has begun its deliberations on the FY2024 budget, but the LDP’s kickback scandal continues to dominate the conversation. The CDP’s Tsujimoto Kiyomi, spearheading the party’s attack in the upper chamber, highlighted contradictions in the testimony between Abe faction bosses in the lower house’s ethics council hearings as to when the faction decided to resume the kickbacks that had been suspended when Abe Shinzō became the faction’s leader in 2021. Kōmeitō leader Yamaguchi Natsuo also questioned the contradictions in the answers given by Abe faction leaders in last week’s hearings.
The government and opposition parties have finalized the terms of an agreement for the upper house deliberative council on political ethics to hold hearings on the scandal on 14 March. As was the case with the lower house’s deliberations, opposition parties want the hearings to be completely public, but whether an individual lawmaker’s testimony is public will depend on the individual. Thirty-two LDP lawmakers will be asked to testify, including, among others, Abe faction boss and former upper house LDP secretary-general Sekō Hiroshige.
The debate within the LDP over whether and how to discipline members continues. The party’s reform headquarters is finalizing its changes to the party rules for approval at the LDP’s convention on 17 March. Among the proposed changes, the party executive would have the power to punish lawmakers when the treasurer of a related political organization is arrested or indicted, but it would not be an automatic process: the secretary-general would have some discretion over whether and how to punish a party member. In the immediate term, however, LDP members are still dissatisfied over how the Abe faction’s leaders have avoided taking responsibility for the scandal that has damaged the party as a whole. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has signaled that any punishment will wait until after the party convention and possibly until April.
Kishida, responding to a question from Tsujimoto, denied that he was thinking about calling a snap election that would coincide with by-elections on 28 April. Kōmeitō’s Yamaguchi was critical of the idea of a snap election, noting that its coalition partner has done little to restore public trust. There is, nevertheless, growing speculation that the prime minister could call a snap election around the time of his state visit to the United States (see below) or after tax relief arrives in June.
Shimomura Hakubun, who had experience in the Abe faction’s executive, has offered to testify before the lower house ethics council, which, among other things could increase pressure on former prime minister Mori Yoshirō, the faction’s longtime namesake and boss, to testify as well. Shimomura has been communicating with the CDP directly about scheduling his appearance.
LDP Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu may be facing his own political funds scandal, as he has been questioned about the transfer of roughly JPY 320mn (USD 2.141mn) over a ten-year period ending in 2022 from one of his kōenkai to another political organization that formally attached him or any other Diet member. The transfers themselves were not illegal, but opposition lawmakers have highlighted irregularities in how the outside organization spent the funds.
The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) continues to drift away from the LDP, announcing that it will back the Constitutional Democratic Party’s (CDP) candidates in the Shimane-1 and Nagasaki-3 by-elections in April. A decision about the Tokyo-15 by-election is still pending.
The by-elections may not matter much, however, if the LDP decides not to contest them. As of 6 March, it had nominated a candidate only for Shimane-1, the seat vacated due to the death of Hosoda Hiroyuki. The Nagasaki party has been unable to agree on a candidate to replace Tanigawa Yaichi, a casualty of the kickbacks scandal, not least because Nagasaki will be losing a seat due to redistricting and nominating a new LDP candidate could just set the party up for a fight over who should be the LDP’s candidates in Nagasaki in the next general election. The Tokyo LDP has also been unable to find a candidate for Tokyo-15.
There is speculation that Tokyo Governor Koike Yuriko could use the by-election to reenter the Diet, either as an independent or in the LDP, a development that could both make the by-election winnable for the government but could also mark the return of a potential leadership candidate to the party. When asked about this possibility on Friday, 8 March, Koike resolutely refused to answer.
On Friday, Kishida passed Tanaka Kakuei on the list of the longest-serving postwar prime ministers.
Economics
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa questioned whether the Japanese economy had truly exited deflation, suggesting that the economy had not yet reached a point at which backsliding was no longer possible.
The Kishida government estimates that Japan could take in approximately 820,000 foreign workers through its Specified Skilled Worker (SSW) program over the next five years, including both the more limited stage-one visa and the more open-ended stage-two visa, the latter of which establishes a pathway to permanent residence. The increase is expected not least because the SSW program will expand to include more industries. The number of foreign workers in Japan – including but not limited to those on SSW visas – passed 2mn in October 2023, marking eleven straight years in which the number of foreign workers set a new record. The Immigration Services Agency reported that as of the end of December, there were 208,462 individuals in Japan via the SSW program, a 20% increase from June 2023. The majority were from Vietnam, and more than a quarter were employed in food and beverage manufacturing.
As the “spring offensive” wage negotiations between labor unions and large employers near its conclusion, Kishida said that he will convene a meeting of the government’s tripartite government-business-labor council on 13 March, presumably to review (and highlight) the results of negotiations, the initial results of which are expected on that day. Kishida, like Abe before him, has been pressuring corporate Japan to boost base pay for workers and spur a virtuous cycle of rising incomes and prices.
Economic Revitalization Minister Shindō Yoshitaka announced a new cabinet advisory council that will consider Japan’s long-term growth outlook in the presence of a declining population.
Foreign and security policy
Kishida, who will be in Washington, DC for a state visit the week of 8 April, will meet with President Joe Biden on 10 April and will address a joint session of Congress on 11 April. Kishida’s visit will be the first state visit by a Japanese prime minister since the late Abe Shinzō was hosted by Barack Obama in April 2015, when he became the first ever Japanese prime minister to address a joint session of Congress.1
Talks between the LDP and Kōmeitō regarding the relaxation of arms control export rules resumed on Friday, 8 March. It appears increasingly likely that the ruling parties could be nearing an agreement along lines preferred by the junior partner. The talks have been stuck on just how far restrictions on arms exports should be relaxed. Kōmeitō essentially wants an exception to be made for joint development of a next-generation fighter, but not open-ended joint development; is concerned that Japanese arms exports do not go to combatant countries; and wants to find a suitable way of narrowing the list of partners.
Prior to Friday’s session, the LDP held talks with Ishin no Kai about arms export changes, as well as regarding a security clearance system and other economic security measures. These talks, likely intended to pressure the LDP’s coalition partner to cooperate, ultimately cannot substitute for an accommodation with its junior partner. Takagi Yōsuke, Kōmeitō’s policy chief who is representing the party in negotiations, said the issue is “touch and go” and admonished the LDP, saying “a government matter is no concern of an opposition party.”
Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yōko hosted Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar for a bilateral strategic dialogue, where they discussed Japan-India cooperation on development in third countries, among other issues. Kishida also welcomed Jaishankar to the Kantei on Friday.
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Other prime ministers, including Kishi Nobusuke, had addressed Congress, but not in joint session.
Tanaka Kakuei - now that’s a blast from the past! I wonder what he’d make of the scandals his juniors are embroiled in right now. Maybe he’d say, “What a bunch of wimps. In my time, we went big, with shopping bags overflowing with tens of millions of yen from multinational corporations. What y’all are doing these days is peanuts.” And he’d have a point…