The free-for-all begins | This week in Japanese politics

LDP candidates jump in, the CDP's own race develops, Ueda faces the Diet, and Japanese and Indian ministers meet

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This week I published these posts here at Observing Japan:

• “A Whole New Ballgame — Kishida's exit gives hope to the LDP,” 23 August

• “Shinjirō dreams of the premiership — Has Koizumi Shinjirō’s moment arrived?,” 20 August

• “The state of the LDP's leadership race — One candidate is in, two more are all but in, and many more are considering,” 19 August

Japan Foresight clients received the following notes:

• “Political winds may be at Ueda’s back,” 23 August

• “What to look for in the LDP’s leadership election,” 19 August

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The rundown

The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership election, now set for 27 September, has begun taking shape, with two candidates having formally declared, at least another three more preparing to announce their candidacies during the coming week, and seven more still exploring leadership bids. Koizumi Shinjirō, who will formally enter the race on 30 August, surged to the lead with LDP supporters in a Nikkei poll, potentially transforming the race. Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) will hold its leadership election on 23 September, with incumbent Izumi Kenta facing challenges from former leader Edano Yukio, former prime minister Noda Yoshihiko, and possible others. In economic policy, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo faced questioning in the Diet, where he defended the BOJ’s policy normalization. Finally, Japanese and Indian foreign and defense ministers held a 2+2 meeting in India, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is preparing for a final trip to Seoul before leaving office. Plus: Shohei Ohtani joins an exclusive club in record time.

LDP leadership election

The LDP’s election administration committee finalized the schedule and rules for the leadership election. The vote will be on Sunday, 27 September, with the campaign formally beginning on 12 September, the longest campaign period since the current format was introduced in 1995. The voting rules will be unchanged. In the first round, 367 lawmakers will cast one vote each, while party supporters essentially vote for candidates in a national proportional representation list, determining how 367 votes will be distributed. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the runoff will be decided by the 367 lawmakers, as well as the LDP’s 47 prefectural chapters, which will each cast one vote.

To the extent that factions still exist – whether formally like the Asō faction or as fragmentary post-factional bodies – it is unlikely that any will be able to unify behind a single candidate. Matsuyama Masaji, the LDP’s upper house secretary-general and a member of the former Kishida faction, said on 20 August that the group will not even attempt to unify behind either of two former Kishida faction members who could enter the race, Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yōko or Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa. Kishida himself has said that he will not be active in the process of selecting his successor. The Asō faction likewise is unable to unify around a single candidate, whether faction member Kōno Tarō or other options.