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State of contempt | Today in the Upper House Campaign
Upper House Elections 2025

State of contempt | Today in the Upper House Campaign

Ishiba and opposition party leaders spar over new US tariffs, candidate views of defense spending, and an LDP lawmaker draws a reprimand for a careless remark

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Tobias Harris
Jul 10, 2025
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State of contempt | Today in the Upper House Campaign
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This is the latest update for paid subscribers on the state of the upper house campaign, which will continue through the vote on 20 July.

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Paid subscribers can access my forecast and viewer’s guide here, including information on how to access a conference call on the elections for paid subscribers, which will be held at 9am EDT on 14 July.

A guide to the 2025 upper house elections

A guide to the 2025 upper house elections

Tobias Harris
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Jul 7
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A pdf of the report can be purchased here.

If you are looking for timely, forward-looking analysis of the stories in Japans’s politics and policymaking that move markets, I have launched a new service through my business, Japan Foresight LLC. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or for information on how to sign up for a trial or schedule a briefing, please visit our website or reach out to me.

I also have a new essay at Nikkei Asia discussing what is at stake for Japan in the upper house elections here.


The campaign trail

Former LDP Secretary-General Nikai Toshihiro and LDP lawmaker Kobayashi Takayuki campaign in Wakayama for Nikai’s son Nobuyasu. Source: @kobahawk on X

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru started Wednesday, 9 July in Kyushu, with stops in the single-member constituencies of Saga and Nagasaki before ending the day in Chiba. On Thursday, 10 July, Ishiba was in Shiga prefecture, along with Finance Minister Katō Katsunobu, where the party is fighting to pick up a single-member constituency. On Wednesday, Koizumi Shinjirō and Kobayashi Takayuki were also in Chiba. On Thursday, Koizumi was in Toyama and Nagano. Kobayashi was in Wakayama.

Komeitō’s Saitō Tetsuo was in Hokkaido on 9 July and Osaka on 10 July.

Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leader Noda Yoshihiko was in single-member constituencies Aomori and Miyagi on 9 July. He was in Niigata and Tochigi on 10 July. CDP Secretary-General Ogawa Junya was in Kanagawa and Ibaraki, both multi-member districts, on 9 July and Nagano on 10 July.

DPFP leader Tamaki Yūichirō speaks to a crowd in Hiroshima. Source: @tamakiyuichiro on X

Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Tamaki Yūichirō was in Tochigi, Fukushima, and Yamagata, all single-member constituencies, on 9 July. On Thursday, he was in three multi-member districts, Aichi, Osaka, and Hiroshima.

On 9 July and 10 July, Maehara Seiji campaigned in his home prefecture of Kyoto. Yoshimura Hirofumi was in Hokkaido on 9 July, where Ishin no Kai is looking to win one of three seats, and then in Tokyo, Chiba, and Aichi on 10 July.

Sanseitō’s Kamiya Sōhei was in Hokkaido on 9 July and Okinawa on 10 July.

Japanese Communist Party (JCP) leader Tamura Tomoko was in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Yamaguchi on 9 July and Gunma and Saitama on 10 July.

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