As always, an excellent analysis! However, I do want to make one point about Komeito's potentially shrinking voter pool: "Compared with 2005, when its vote total in proportional representation voting reached 8.98 million, Kōmeitō gathered only 7.11 million votes in the 2021 general election and 6.18 million in the 2022 upper house elections." This is rather decontextualized, as it does not take account of Japan's shrinking electorate, both in terms of Japan's overall aging and shrinking population and the significant decline in voter participation since 2009. Famously, due to a large decrease in voter participation, the LDP won a huge victory in 2012 with fewer votes than it received in 2009, when it suffered a historic and massive defeat. When we take Japan's shrinking and aging population into account, and consider declining voter participation, it is less clear to me that a decline of 1.87 million votes between Lower House elections in 2005 and 2021 really translates into significantly less voting clout. A smaller fish yes, but in a smaller pond.
Thanks for the comment! I did some back of the envelope calculations while writing this, and the fall in Kōmeitō's vote in percentage terms has outpaced the decline in population since it peaked. Clearly the Kōmeitō vote still matters to the LDP, particularly in a persistently low turnout environment in which organized votes have more weight, but I do think that a smaller, less reliable Kōmeitō vote is already leading some members of the LDP to consider the terms of the relationship, particularly after the UC scandal has raised questions about ties with religious organizations. It's hard to bet against the coalition, given how durable it has been, but the stresses are growing.
As always, an excellent analysis! However, I do want to make one point about Komeito's potentially shrinking voter pool: "Compared with 2005, when its vote total in proportional representation voting reached 8.98 million, Kōmeitō gathered only 7.11 million votes in the 2021 general election and 6.18 million in the 2022 upper house elections." This is rather decontextualized, as it does not take account of Japan's shrinking electorate, both in terms of Japan's overall aging and shrinking population and the significant decline in voter participation since 2009. Famously, due to a large decrease in voter participation, the LDP won a huge victory in 2012 with fewer votes than it received in 2009, when it suffered a historic and massive defeat. When we take Japan's shrinking and aging population into account, and consider declining voter participation, it is less clear to me that a decline of 1.87 million votes between Lower House elections in 2005 and 2021 really translates into significantly less voting clout. A smaller fish yes, but in a smaller pond.
Thanks for the comment! I did some back of the envelope calculations while writing this, and the fall in Kōmeitō's vote in percentage terms has outpaced the decline in population since it peaked. Clearly the Kōmeitō vote still matters to the LDP, particularly in a persistently low turnout environment in which organized votes have more weight, but I do think that a smaller, less reliable Kōmeitō vote is already leading some members of the LDP to consider the terms of the relationship, particularly after the UC scandal has raised questions about ties with religious organizations. It's hard to bet against the coalition, given how durable it has been, but the stresses are growing.
Looking like 60/40 on snap election?