Kishida feels the heat | This week in Japanese politics

The LDP field takes shape, chaos in the Tokyo gubernatorial race, and it's promotion season in Kasumigaseki

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Possible contenders in for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election may be preparing to enter the race, as LDP lawmakers continue to call for Prime Minister Kishida Fumio to bow out. Tokyo Governor Koike Yuriko appears to be in the lead ahead of the 7 July vote, but the campaign has been overshadowed by the antics of novelty candidates — and the LDP is focused on Tokyo assembly by-elections. Meanwhile, the yen continued to fall against the dollar, and economic bureaucrats, including the finance ministry’s chief currency policymaker, changed jobs. The Kishida government is also contending with rising anger in Okinawa, over the government’s (and the US military’s) failure to inform the prefecture about a sexual assault case involving a US airman. Plus: the Kishida government passes the 1,000-day mark.

Politics

The LDP leadership election is heating up. Kōno Tarō, the digital affairs minister, dined with Asō Tarō, to whose faction Kōno belongs, on 26 June, where he reportedly informed the faction boss that he intends to run for the party leadership in September. Kōno has denied the reports, but his denials are unlikely to dampen speculation about his intentions and the broader prospect of a contested election (My thoughts on Kōno here). Ishiba Shigeru, who is the public’s favorite in polls asking who should be prime minister, may also be preparing to declare his candidacy. Against this backdrop, Kihara Seiji, one of Kishida’s closest advisers, says he does not know whether the prime minister intends to run in the LDP’s leadership election.

Former prime minister Suga Yoshihide speaks in a Bungei Shunjū webinar. Screenshot by author

Meanwhile, after suggesting in a webinar on Sunday, 23 June that the LDP’s leadership election is an opportunity for revitalizing the party – implying that Kishida should step aside – former prime minister Suga Yoshihide said in an interview in the conservative monthly Hanada published on 26 June that Kishida ought to take responsibility for the scandal, presumably a call for him to resign.

Izumi Kenta, whose term as leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) also ends in September, continues to face chatter within the CDP that he ought to be replaced by a more experienced politician – CDP founder Edano Yukio and former prime minister Noda Yoshihiko are the most commonly mentioned names – in light of the possibility of a change of government. No candidate has declared against Izumi yet. In the meantime, the CDP has continued to step up its recruitment of candidates and received 500 applications to participate in its 22 June training academy, with ultimately 350 participating in person or online.

Baba Nobuyuki and other Ishin no Kai convened a meeting with lawmakers, local officials, and other party leaders to review the events of the ordinary Diet session. While Kishida and the LDP were criticized for lying to Ishin about their intentions to take up the issue of reforming research, public relations and accommodation allowances for Diet members, Baba and other party leaders were criticized for being taken in by the LDP. Party founder Hashimoto Tōru joined the criticism. The fallout from the broken talks with the LDP have revealed divisions within Ishin no Kai regarding the party’s identity and how it should relate to the ruling coalition, which could become more urgent questions after the next general election.