“It is very difficult for the ruling coalition to maintain a majority"

Notes from the general election campaign

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I have published a comprehensive guide and forecast for the general election, available for paying subscribers here. The guide is also available for purchase here.

I recently appeared on two podcasts: The Market Huddle (in conversation with Kevin Muir from The Macro Tourist) and The IRF podcast.

In case you missed it, I also had an article at Foreign Policy on Ishiba and his challenges.

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Campaign stops

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will be in Ibaraki and Chiba prefectures, Secretary-General Moriyama Hiroshi will be Kagoshima and Miyazaki, and Koizumi Shinjirō will be in Okinawa. (LDP schedules)

For the Constitutional Democrats, it will be a Kyushu-heavy day, as party leader Noda Yoshihiko, after starting the day in Yamaguchi-2 (where Kishi Nobuchiyo is vulnerable), will be in Fukuoka and Kagoshima, while senior advisor Edano Yukio will be in different Fukuoka constituency and then Miyazaki. Former party leader Izumi Kenta will be in Aichi. (CDP schedules)

The Democratic Party for the People’s Tamaki Yūichirō will also be in Kyushu, stopping in Miyazaki, Fukuoka, and Nagasaki (source); Ishin leader Ishin leader Baba Nobuyuki will be in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Osaka (source); Reiwa Shinsengumi leader Yamamoto Tarō will be in Saitama.