A guide to the 2024 general election

A forecast, district-level notes, and races to watch

I apologize for the radio silence at the general election campaign has unfolded, but I have been hard at work preparing a “viewer’s guide” and forecast for the 2024 general election. Using opinion polls, reporting, and analysis of past elections, I sought to make a general election forecast working from the district level up. Ultimately the accuracy of this forecast will depend on voter turnout. If turnout continues to increase from the record low reached in 2014, it is plausible that the LDP could see losses that approach what I outline here. If, however, voters, particularly independents, stay home again, the LDP and Kōmeitō could outperform expectations on their strength of their “organized votes.”

What you should take away from this exercise is that while an outright change of government is unlikely — the LDP will remain the largest party by a sizable margin — Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru could come out of the general election weaker and more vulnerable to intra-party challenges.

The goal of this guide is to provide readers with a resource to use as they follow electoral coverage during the final week of the race and watch the returns come in on 27 October. I have provided my guide as a pdf for all paying subscribers, available below. If you are not a paying subscriber, I hope that you will consider signing up. Otherwise, if you are interested in this guide, I have made the pdf available for purchase here.

Thank you, and I will be back to more regular posting for the remainder of the campaign.