Holding pattern | This week in Japanese politics

LDP contenders continue to mobilize, tax revenues continue to rise, and a scandal is uncovered at a defense contractor

Thank you for reading Observing Japan. “This Week in Japanese Politics” is published on Friday or Saturday for paid subscribers. From now until 15 July, annual subscriptions are 20% off.

I will be launching a monthly conference call exclusively for paid subscribers this month, with the first call scheduled for 16 July. I am still interested in readers’ thoughts on how to format the conference call, so please share your opinions in the survey below.

If you are looking for timely, forward-looking analysis of the stories in Japans’s politics and policymaking that move markets, I have launched a new service through my business, Japan Foresight LLC. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or for information on how to sign up for a trial or schedule a briefing, please visit our website or reach out to me.

---

Several would-be challengers for the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership contest have continued to hint at their intentions but none has formally declared yet — including Prime Minister Kishida Fumio himself. The Kishida government, meanwhile, is under pressure due to its failure to notify local authorities about cases of sexual misconduct by US military personnel in Okinawa. Rengo reported that it achieved its target for wage increases but new data showed that real household spending fell again. Kishida took a rare visit to the Bank of Japan to participate in the unveiling of new banknotes, while LDP Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu was in Kyoto talking about supporting start-ups. The Finance Ministry uncovered fraud at a defense contractor, resulting in the Defense Ministry’s announcing a bribery investigation. The Defense Ministry also released its first basic policy on the use of artificial intelligence. Plus: The average income of Diet members rose for the first time in five years in 2023.

Politics

On Wednesday, 3 July, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa admitted to there have been five incidents of sexual violence by US personnel in Okinawa since 2023 that have not been reported to Okinawan authorities. Japanese Communist Party (CDP) leader Tamura Tomoko demanded a recess meeting of the upper and lower house budget committees for Prime Minister Kishida Fumio to face questioning over how and why this occurred. The Kishida government has pledged that it will improve coordination between ministries and with local governments, and has also pressed the United States to improve discipline among US military personnel in Japan.

The would-be candidates in the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership race continue to weigh their options. Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu said in a TV appearance that he “cannot deny” that there is work he would like to do as prime minister and said he would be considering his candidacy over the summer. Former prime minister Suga Yoshihide, meanwhile, met with Ishiba Shigeru and former internal affairs minister Takeda Ryōta to discuss the leadership election, as Suga prepares for what Asahi describes as his “last battle” against Kishida. Takeda, who belonged to the former Nikai faction, may be working to throw the former faction’s support – to the extent it can be organized – behind Ishiba.

Ishiba Shigeru speaks at an event in Fukuoka. Source: screenshot by author

At a speech in Fukuoka on 4 July, however, Ishiba avoided commenting on his intentions for the leadership election.

Meanwhile, Kobayashi Takayuki, the former minister for economic security who has been mentioned as a possible “generational change” candidate in the LDP’s leadership election, said in an interview in the latest issue of the conservative monthly Seiron that he aspires to the premiership and “when the time comes, I want to try for it,” leaving open the possibility that he could run this year.

Kōno Tarō, asked about the decline in his support discussed here, said there are “various factors at play” but he had not studied it in detail. He denied that his handling of the My Number card program was a main factor.