Under pressure | This Week in Japanese Politics

Prime Minister Ishiba faces softer polls, opposition attacks, and a broadside from Trump as the kickoff of the upper house campaign nears

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The rundown

Ruling and opposition party leaders continue to make their preparations for the upper house elections — and hone their appeals to voters — ahead of the start of the campaign on 3 July. New polls show the government’s support dipping again. Meanwhile, the finance ministry reported that tax receipts reached another new high in FY2024. Finally, ahead of the expiration of the exemption from “reciprocal” tariffs, US President Donald Trump warned that automotive tariffs will stay in place as seven rounds of ministerial talks have failed to achieve a breakthrough. Plus: the impact of Abe Shinzō’s assassination while campaigning during the last upper house campaign will be felt during this campaign. All of this and more in a new This Week in Japanese Politics.

The week ahead

The Quad foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday, 1 July.

The cabinet office releases its consumer confidence survey on Tuesday, 1 July.

The upper house campaign will formally begin on Thursday, 3 July.

Ahead of the campaign, party leaders will hold a debate at the National Press Club on Wednesday, 2 July.

Bank of Japan policy board member Takata Hajime will deliver remarks in Mie prefecture on 3 July.

Public opinion

The Observing Japan public opinion tracker has been updated with new polls from NHK, the Yomiuri Shimbun, and Mainichi Shimbun. Analysis of the new polls is here:

Polls point to fluid upper house campaign