Trouble at home, Kishida abroad | This week in Japanese politics

Koike vs. Renhō in Tokyo, Kishida attends the G7, and the Bank of Japan moves towards quantitative tightening

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G7 leaders speak with Ukrainian President Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during their summit in Apulia, Italy. Source: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan

The political reform bill is moving closer to passage in the House of Councillors, but the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may have lost Ishin no Kai’s support. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio will face his first debate with other party leaders since becoming prime minister, even as senior lawmakers and grassroots LDP supporters are turning against him. In local politics, Koike Yuriko will officially seek a third term, running against Constitutional Democratic Party lawmaker Renhō, and Ishin no Kai may be preparing for a third referendum on creating an Osaka metropolitan government. At home, the Kishida government unveiled its draft basic policy, and the Bank of Japan announced that it will begin reducing its long-term bond purchases. Meanwhile, Kishida traveled to Italy for the G7 summit, while a Korean newspaper reported that Japanese and North Korean representatives held a secret meeting in Mongolia in May. Plus: Dr. NakaMats runs again!

Politics

The House of Councillors special committee on political reform debates the political reform bill. Source: LDP

The debate over political reform legislation has advanced in the House of Councillors, with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) aiming for a vote on the bill by mid-week, leaving time before the parliamentary session ends on 23 June. It may nevertheless still be a challenging week for the government. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is expected to participate in deliberations around the bill on Monday, 18 June, following his return from summits in Europe (see below). Meanwhile, although Ishin no Kai supported the bill in the lower house, it has raised new questions about transparency for research and PR expenses and could vote against it – although with Kōmeitō on board, the bill is still likely to pass.

The first party leaders’ debate in the Diet of Kishida’s tenure as prime minister will be held on 19 June, featuring the prime minister, Constitutional Democratic Party leader Izumi Kenta, Ishin leader Baba Nobuyuki, Democratic Party for the People leader Tamaki Yūichirō, and Japanese Communist Party leader Tamura Tomoko. Izumi will have the bulk of the forty-five minutes allotted for questions – 26 minutes – with Baba having 12 minutes. Izumi has warned that, depending on the debate, the CDP could decide to submit a no-confidence motion after the debate.

The LDP has all but conceded that it will not be able to submit a constitutional revision proposal before the Diet session ends, meaning that Kishida will not be able to fulfill his promise of achieving constitutional revision before the end of his term as LDP president. This could give right-wing lawmakers a convenient excuse to move on from Kishida in the leadership contest.

The Kishida government’s approval rating plunged to 21% in NHK’s monthly opinion poll, while its disapproval rose to 60%, both new records since the start of the Kishida government in 2021. Meanwhile, the LDP’s support fell to 25.5%, its lowest level since returning to power in 2012. The CDP gained 2.9 points to 9.5%. 44% said they are unaffiliated.