The LDP campaign begins | Today in Japanese politics
The nine candidates start their races, using early events to sharpen distinctions, while North Korea marks the start of the race with some ballistic missiles
Thank you for reading Observing Japan. In light of the volume of activity in Japanese politics, “This Week in Japanese Politics” will become “Today in Japanese Politics” through the LDP election on 27 September. I cannot guarantee it will truly be published daily, but my goal will be to update this feature several times a week for paid subscribers. Today’s edition is free for all readers.
If you are looking for timely, forward-looking analysis of the stories in Japans’s politics and policymaking that move markets, I have launched a new service through my business, Japan Foresight LLC. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or for information on how to sign up for a trial or schedule a briefing, please visit our website or reach out to me.
All readers are invited to participate in a contest to predict the winners of the LDP and CDP leadership races. More information about rules and prizes here . Click the survey button below to enter:
Readers can also find my views on the LDP race in the following articles:
Craig Mellow, “U.S. Steel Deal Looks Dead. Japan Won’t Hold a Grudge,” Barron’s
Daniel Sneider, “Who Does Washington Want To Be Japan's Prime Minister,” The Oriental Economist
Alastair Gale and Yuki Hagiwara, “Japan’s Leadership Race is Wide Open as Party Elders Retreat,” Bloomberg
The rundown
The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership election began on Thursday, 12 September as nine candidates filed to run. The campaign, which began with a candidates’ forum and two televised debates, will extend through the voting on 27 September. With the LDP’s campaign in the spotlight, the Constitutional Democratic Party’s leadership candidates used a forum with local legislators to draw a contrast between the CDP and the LDP. Meanwhile, elsewhere in Japanese politics, the standoff between Hyōgo’s prefectural assembly and its governor continues. In economic policy, the LDP candidates used the first day’s events to articulate their competing approaches to boosting Japan’s economy, while in foreign policy, North Korea marked the start of the LDP campaign by firing ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan. Finally, is there a whiff of scandal around Koizumi’s marriage?
LDP leadership election
At 10am on Thursday, the nine candidates for the LDP leadership election delivered their endorsements and officially filed for the party’s leadership contest. Each candidate’s endorsements are listed here. The nine candidates are the most to run since the LDP began requiring endorsements in 1972.
Among the 180 endorsers were twenty-one lawmakers who had failed to report kickbacks from their factions, who endorsed five of the nine candidates. Takaichi Sanae had the most, with thirteen of her twenty endorsers – all former Abe faction members – having failed to report the kickbacks, including several who received punishments from the party. Katō Katsunobu was second with four, Motegi Toshimitsu had two, and Koizumi Shinjirō and Kamikawa Yōko had one.
After the candidates filed, the party kicked off the leadership campaign with a forum at LDP headquarters, with each candidate delivering short speeches that largely recapitulated what they said at greater length in their press conferences announcing their candidacies. Nikkei published summaries of each candidate’s remarks here. One effect of the large field is that in the party’s events, candidates will, in the interest of time, have only ten minutes to speak rather than the customary twenty minutes. One consequence of this reasonable limitation is that it may be difficult to use party events to present anything more than the basic outlines for their plans, prompting them to use their own stump speeches and social media to present their ideas more fully. The Yomiuri Shimbun has the full text of each candidate’s remarks. (Ishiba; Kōno; Katō; Kamikawa; Koizumi; Hayashi; Kobayashi; Takaichi; Motegi)
NHK has a timeline of what the nine candidates did before the campaign started, including visits to shrines and rallies with their supporters.
CDP leadership election
While the LDP race was getting started, the CDP candidates held a forum at party headquarters with CDP local lawmakers, who together will cast a quarter of the votes in the first round of the party election. The candidates sought to highlight the differences between the CDP and the LDP, with, for example, party leader Izumi Kenta noting that none of the CDP’s candidates is a hereditary politician compared with the LDP candidates, four of whom are hereditary politicians (and a fifth, Katō Katsunobu, received a political inheritance from his father-in-law).
Politics
Eighty-six members of the Hyōgo prefectural assembly from across the political spectrum on 12 September jointly called for Governor Saitō Motohiko to resign amidst allegations of widespread power harassment. Saitō rejected the demands, saying that there is work for the prefectural government to do, daring the assembly to pass a no-confidence motion, which leading parties have said they will do on 19 September if he does not resign. If the no-confidence motion passes, Saitō has the option of dissolving the legislature and calling a snap election, though it is unclear whether he would take that step.
Economics
In his remarks at the LDP candidates’ forum, Kōno Tarō warned that with interest rates rising, it is no longer sufficient to talk about merely achieving a primary balance. “We will be up to our necks in interest payments, and we will be unable to put money into essential social security, let alone pay out benefits,” he said.
In a television appearance with other candidates on Thursday, 12 September, Koizumi sought to walk back some of his rhetoric from his campaign launch event when he discussed “regulatory reform without sanctuary.” Speaking on Fuji TV (video here), the candidate said that his goal is not to liberalize laying off workers. Koizumi’s reform proposals have, however, placed labor market reforms and their place in boosting Japan’s growth at the center of the campaign, as the candidates debate how best to improve Japan’s economic performance.
Foreign and security policy
The Ministry of Defense reported that at 7:10am local time North Korea launched several ballistic missiles eastward from its west coast, reaching a maximum altitude of 100 kilometers and traveling 350 kilometers before splashing down in waters outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio condemned the launches and confirmed that the Japanese government was in communication with the US and South Korean governments. It was the first missile launch by North Korea in two months.
The Ministry of Defense also announced on 12 September that two Russian Tu142 patrol planes traveled around the Japanese archipelago for the first time since 2019, although they did not violate Japanese airspace.
In his speech at the opening LDP candidates’ forum, Ishiba Shigeru said that as prime minister, he would convene a special cabinet committee to address conditions for Self-Defense Forces (SDF) personnel, as Japan’s armed forces grapple with significant recruitment and retention issues. He also repeated his advocacy for the creation of an Asian NATO.
In remarks during an LDP candidates’ forum on TV Asahi Thursday, Takaichi Sanae expressed her firm opposition to raising taxes to pay for higher defense spending at this time, for fear that tax hikes will harm Japan’s economy. She proposed instead to use construction bonds, foreign exchange reserves, or even to create “defense bonds,” as proposed by the late Abe Shinzō. In the candidates’ forum earlier in the day, Motegi Toshimitsu reiterated his opposition to using tax hikes to pay for higher defense spending, arguing that his growth strategy will raise tax revenues enough to fund the increase.
Further reading
The full transcript of Asahi’s CDP leadership election forum is available here.
Nikkei reviews what the LDP candidates have said about Japan’s relationship with China.
The LDP debate at the Japan Press Club on Saturday, 14 September will be streaming here.
Mainichi has a brief article on Kamikawa Yōko’s choice of a white jacket on Thursday, which she said is meant to symbol clean government (though outside of Japan white has associations with the women’s suffrage movement).
The FT’s Leo Lewis writes on the lessons of Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel.
Shukan Bunshūn reports on a possible romantic scandal involving Takigawa Christel, wife of Koizumi Shinjirō, which, if nothing else, highlights the increased scrutiny that Koizumi will face.