The LDP and Ishin no Kai seal their deal | Japan Daily Briefing

Time will tell whether Ishin's extra-cabinet support for the Takaichi government is durable

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The LDP and Ishin no Kai launch their partnership

Ishin no Kai co-leader Yoshimura Hirofumi and LDP leader Takaichi Sanae pose with their coalition pact on 20 October. Source: @Osaka_ishin on X

Ishin no Kai and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) formally signed a coalition agreement on Monday, 20 October, ensuring that LDP leader Takaichi Sanae will become prime minister on 21 October.

As anticipated, the agreement is a policy agreement, not a comprehensive pact. Ishin no Kai will neither be joining the government nor coordinating with the LDP in elections. Rather, in the agreement, Ishin no Kai has pledged to vote for Takaichi as prime minister and to join a “coalition,” but in practice this agreement does not appear to be even a “confidence-and-supply” agreement in which Ishin no Kai pledges to support the government in confidence motions and budget votes. Rather, the agreement outlines a number of policies that the government will work to advance – some as early as the forthcoming parliamentary session – based on Ishin no Kai’s demands to the LDP last Thursday. Takaichi will become prime minister at the head of a minority government who will be able to rely on Ishin no Kai’s support as long as she pursues policies to Ishin no Kai’s satisfaction; Ishin no Kai, meanwhile, will try to demonstrate that it can deliver on its program without having to take full responsibility for the decisions made by the LDP government and reserving the option of turning against the government if it fails to deliver. (agreement here; summary) There remain significant questions about how binding the pact will be – in many cases the pact uses vague language like “aim for” in planning for various policies – or how realistic Ishin no Kai’s ideas are. The pact’s inclusion of a pledge to “explore” a possible reduction in the consumption tax on foodstuffs to zero for two years will also face significant pushback, as will the proposal to reduce the number of Diet seats. (Democratic Party for the People leader Tamaki Yūichirō, after initially endorsing the idea, has walked back his support.)

The LDP-Ishin no Kai pact as signed by their party leaders. Source: Ishin no Kai