The end of the coalition | Japan Daily Briefing
As the coalition breaks, Ishiba delivers an impassioned defense of democracy
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Kōmeitō quits
I already wrote at length today about Kōmeitō’s decision to end its twenty-six-year-old coalition with the LDP.
The end of the coalition introduces significant uncertainty about the future of Japanese politics.
In the immediate term, Takaichi Sanae and Saitō Tetsuo battled in the media over what went wrong. After Takaichi claimed that Kōmeitō’s decision was unilateral, Saitō said that he was surprised by her characterization, given that he was clear about his party’s conditions for maintaining the coalition.
Takaichi, meanwhile, also said that she asked Saitō whether his party would have left the ruling coalition regardless of who won the LDP’s leadership election; she said that he told her it would have been the same no matter who won. There is clearly significant bitterness within Kōmeitō regarding its treatment by the LDP, including not just Takaichi’s actions since becoming LDP leader but over several years. (The party has not, for example, forgotten that new LDP Vice President Asō Tarō called it a “cancer” in 2023.) Still, it is unlikely that had Koizumi Shinjirō won with the backing of Suga Yoshihide, perhaps one of Kōmeitō’s closest friends in the LDP, Kōmeitō would have left the coalition this soon after the LDP leadership election. Indeed, the role played by Asō in pushing Kōmeitō out seems considerable, something also noted in this lengthy report by Jiji Press.
The opposition parties have accelerated their efforts to take advantage of the break between the longstanding ruling parties. Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leader Noda Yoshihiko appealed to Kōmeitō to work with the CDP on political funding reform, the proximate cause of the break, as did Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Tamaki Yūichirō, whose party has already worked with Kōmeitō on a proposal that the LDP has rejected. Tamaki, of course, also signaled his interest in becoming prime minister as CDP Secretary-General Azumi Jun continued his discussions with other opposition parties about backing Tamaki’s election as prime minister.
Kōmeitō itself is thinking about what role it could play going forward. Secretary-General Nishida Makoto, in a television appearance on 10 October, acknowledged that the party could shift to become a predominantly proportional representation-focused party that cooperates with other opposition parties in single-member constituencies.
The next ten days – assuming that an extraordinary Diet session opens on 20 or 21 October – will see a frenzy of activity among the opposition parties, between the LDP and potential partners, and within the LDP as they race to assemble a second-round majority in the House of Representatives. Or, in the LDP’s case, preventing the opposition parties from assembling the 197 votes they would note to top the LDP’s votes in a runoff.
Ishiba’s farewell warning
While the LDP was entering a new phase in its political crisis, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru was delivering some remarks on the eightieth anniversary of the end of World War II (English; Japanese). These remarks may serve not only as a farewell address ahead of his exit from the premiership – sooner or later – but also bear the mark of several decades of thinking about why Japan went to war. “The unanswered question,” he says, “[is] why our political system could not serve as a brake to stop such attempts.” After discussing the history of how Japan’s institutions – the constitution, the Diet, the government, and the media – failed to stop a war that the government’s own institutions acknowledged that the country could not win, he pivots to the present and offers what he believes are the lessons of Japan’s disastrous war.
It is not a pacifist speech; he acknowledges the importance of Japan’s national security establishment and its Self-Defense Forces for securing Japan in an increasingly dangerous world. “Retaining armed organization is of paramount importance for self-defense and deterrence,” he says. But he provides a forceful defense of the necessity of democratic values for the responsible conduct of national security policy. Politicians need to take their responsibilities for the national defense seriously, which includes being fully informed about defense issues.1 The SDF needs to communicate openly and honestly with political leaders and avoid excessive service rivalries. Politicians and parties should put the national interest ahead of “pandering to fleeting public opinion and pursuing popularity-seeking policies that would harm the national interest.” He admonishes the media to avoid sensationalist coverage that stirs up “narrow-minded nationalism, discrimination, or xenophobia.” And he condemns “the suppression of politics through violence,” referring to Abe’s assassination but also the “government by assassination” of the 1930s.
Ishiba, in short, offers a passionate defense of democracy as necessary for both peace and security that calls upon all Japanese, particularly young Japanese who do not have memories of the cost of war, to learn from their country’s history and “ensure that such calamities are never repeated.”
Further reading
Nikkei analyzes the history of the LDP-Kōmeitō coalition.
Akazawa Ryōsei spoke for an hour with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about the next steps in implementing the US-Japan trade agreement.
Tensions between the LDP and Kōmeitō in Tokyo’s local politics were likely a contributing factor to the breakup.
Shock among members of both parties in “ever victorious” Kansai, where the two parties have worked closely together in contention with Ishin no Kai.
The Mainichi Shimbun did a thorough investigation into whether an independent nuclear deterrent would truly be a “cheaper” way of defending Japan.
Honda Etsuro, a reflationist who was once part of Abe’s economic brain trust, is an informal adviser to Takaichi too. After roiling markets earlier this week by warning that it is premature for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise rates this month, he spoke with Sankei to explain that Takaichi is carrying forward to thinking of Abenomics, which does not necessarily mean large monetary stimulus (though he argues for reducing the consumption tax on foodstuffs).
Koizumi says that he has not been approached by Takaichi about joining the cabinet.
Nikkan Gendai conducted its own study of the 2024 general election and estimates that ninety-three LDP incumbents could be in danger of losing their seats.
Another Ishin no Kai lawmaker has defected, the fourth in recent weeks. These defections have had a material impact, insofar as the party has gone from thirty-eight seats – enough to deliver a one-seat lower house majority to the LDP – to thirty-four.
Tthis is an old gripe of Ishiba’s.