The day after | Today in the Upper House Campaign

Will he stay or will he go?

Thank you for reading Observing Japan. This post is available to paid subscribers and is the last in my coverage of the 2025 upper house elections.

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I was quoted in an article in the New York Times on the election outcome, “Japan’s Long-Dominant Party Suffers Election Defeat as Voters Swing Right”; this article from Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Chie Tanaka in the Washington Post, “Japan’s ruling party loses key election, complicating trade talks”; this article by Sakura Murakami in Bloomberg, “Japan’s Ishiba Tries to Buy Time After Historic Election Setback"; and Craig Mellow in Barron’s, “Japan’s Youthquake Leaves a Political Muddle. Bonds Could Suffer.” I also discussed the election results on CNBC Asia’s Squawk Box Asia.

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The LDP

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru, joined by senior LDP officials, speaks to the press about the ruling coalition’s electoral defeat. Screenshot by author.

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru met with senior Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officials on Monday, 21 July and, in a press conference, communicated his intention to stay on as prime minister following the ruling coalition’s defeat in the 20 July upper house elections. In the press conference, the prime minister faced questions about the apparent contradiction between his call in 2007 for then-prime minister Abe Shinzō to resign after losing the upper house elections (unlike in 2007, the LDP is still the largest party in the upper house, he said); talked about taking responsibility but suggested that his party leadership team will stay in place; and otherwise said that the government has too much important work to do for there to be a leadership vacuum. However, senior party leaders, once and future leadership aspirants, and backbenchers are murmuring – and posting to social media – about what Kobayashi Takayuki called “an ultimatum” delivered by voters and what the party needs to do in response. The 1 August deadline for the US to impose 25% “reciprocal” tariffs on Japan may give Ishiba a little time, but the party may be increasingly united in wanting him out of office. (press conference transcript)