The Abe faction is out of government
Will the faction pull Kishida down too?
What began as a move to replace the senior leaders of the Abe faction in government and party posts has now become a comprehensive purge of all of the faction’s members in government posts, including not only cabinet ministers but also parliamentary vice ministers and parliamentary secretaries. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, according to Asahi, intends to replace not only Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno Hirokazu and METI Minister Nishimura Yasutoshi but also Suzuki Junji, minister of internal affairs and communications and Miyashita Ichirō, the minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. He will also replace five vice ministers and six parliamentary secretaries.
In a stroke, the Seiwa-kai — which has spent the past quarter century as the LDP’s mainstream after spending the previous quarter century as the anti-mainstream, locked out of the premiership between Fukuda Takeo and Mori Yoshirō — has been expelled from the leadership of government and party.
The LDP’s factions, at their most basic, rest on a patron-client relationship between faction bosses and backbenchers. The backbenchers are the foot soldiers faction leaders need to compete in leadership contests and other intra-party squabbles; in exchange, faction leaders aid reelection campaigns and put forward faction members for government and party posts. Each is invested in the success of the other. A faction that is excluded from all government and party posts is failing at this most fundamental task, and it will be only a matter of time before younger Abe faction members — provided they aren’t tainted by the scandal — starting looking for new homes.
It is too early to say whether, by moving swiftly and totally against the Abe faction, Kishida will be able to avoid a potentially fatal blow to his premiership from this scandal. His government was, after all, dominated by the Abe faction for its first two years. And, cut out of government, the faction could use what strength it has left to undermine Kishida. The public may also be skeptical about a reformist turn by Kishida, the damage to his reputation already done. After all, it’s been a year since his predecessor, Suga Yoshihide, chided him for remaining at the helm of a faction and urged him to make opposition to factional politics part of his program for governing. Can Kishida himself usher in a new order, or will he end up being the final caretaker of a crumbling regime?
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This is excellent news. I hope the old dogs who have been strangling Japan will be replaced by forward thinking young people who care about the environment, the well being of ordinary citizens, and a positive future for Japan.