That sinking feeling
The government's numbers continue to fall
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Polling data
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Another round of opinion polls shows that Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s government is continuing to hemorrhage public support, with sizable drops in net support in new polls conducted over the weekend by the Nikkei Shimbun, Kyodo News, and Fuji News-Sankei Shimbun. The shifts in these polls included a -12 drop to -24 net approval in Nikkei; a -28 drop to -30 net approval in Kyodo; and a -27 drop to -33 net approval in Fuji-Sankei.
If there is a silver lining for Ishiba in these polls, it is that they may be lagging rather than leading indicators. In my ten-day weighted moving average, the three new polls brought the government’s average disapproval down to 60.52%, while its average approval rose slightly to 28.75%. That said, the net approval of these averages fell to a record low of -30, which is seventeen points worse than Ishiba’s standing on the eve of the gift-giving scandal.
Naturally, all three polls found that the scandal is a significant liability for the prime minister, with overwhelmingly majorities – 71% in both Nikkei and Kyodo, 77% in Sankei – indicating that they have not found Ishiba’s explanations convincing. Sankei found, like Asahi last week, that voters are not necessarily demanding Ishiba’s resignation, with only 32.7% saying he should resign and 62.6% saying that it is not necessary. Nikkei, however, found that 50% of voters think Ishiba should resign before the upper house elections, with 21% saying he should quit immediately and another 29% saying “by the upper house elections,” leaving the precise timing somewhat vague.
Perhaps most disconcerting for Ishiba, the internals of multiple polls suggest that Ishiba could be losing core supporters. Nikkei’s analysis found that his government’s support from Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) supporters have begun slipping, dropping from 72% in February to 65% in March, with roughly 30% of LDP supporters also agreeing that the prime minister should be replaced before the upper house elections. Meanwhile, Fuji-Sankei found a twelve-point drop in the government’s approval from LDP supporters, a nine-point drop in approval among independents, and significant drops in support from older voters, who been Ishiba’s strongest supporters. His support from 60-somethings fell 7.7 points, while his support from voters seventy and above fell 16.8 points. His biggest drops were with voters in their forties and fifties, who were already not among his strongest backers.
The LDP may not be insulated from the shift against the Ishiba government. While polling regarding intentions for the upper house elections has not necessarily moved sharply against the LDP – in Nikkei, the LDP leads with 29% to 14% for the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and 13% for the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) – the party’s popularity has fallen. In the Fuji-Sankei poll, the party’s approval fell more than five points to 20.8%, a new low in this format of Fuji-Sankei’s poll, which dates back to 2021 (though in Nikkei its approval was at 32%, only one point lower than in February).
While approval ratings alone will not determine Ishiba’s fate, they will shape public and intra-LDP narratives about the prime minister’s viability ahead of the upper house elections. And after two straight weekends of abysmal polling, I can imagine that a lot of LDP lawmakers have a lot of questions about whether Ishiba can pull through this scandal.