Public's ardor for Takaichi cools | Japan Daily Briefing
Polls record sizable declines in government's support for the first time
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In case you missed it, I outlined some initial thoughts on the snap election here.
A wave of new polling recorded double-digit drops in the government’s net approval and showed that the LDP’s popularity is little better than in 2024. The LDP has a few different seat targets in mind, with different implications for each. Finally, a Sanseitō-backed candidate won a governorship for the first time.
Takaichi’s support dips in new polls
Pollsters have published a new round of polling, the last they will be able to publish in detail until after the general election, since campaign laws do not prevent pollsters from surveying the public but limit the information that can be reported. While Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae remains extraordinarily popular, particularly this far into premiership, her net approval fell by more than ten points in multiple polls and her approval ratings reached new lows in multiple polls.
The Mainichi Shimbun was particularly negative for the Takaichi government. Its approval fell ten points to 57% and its disapproval rose seven points to 29%, a seventeen-point change in net approval. The survey found that 41% do not approve of her calling a snap election, another 31% do not understand, and only 27% approve. 53% said that she should have prioritized passing the budget before calling an election. Only 27% said that they want the LDP to win an absolute majority of its own; 42% do not. The public does not have high hopes for the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), or Chūdō, with only 17% saying they feel confident about it compared to 52% who do not. Ishin received especially poor marks for its own electoral gambit – by-elections for Osaka’s governor and mayor – with only 15% saying they understood it compared to 48% who did not.
Of particular note in the Mainichi poll is the age breakdown in support for Takaichi. Most of the decline in her support is among older voters. Her support among voters seventy and up fell from 58% (already below the average) to 46%; it fell an eye-popping nineteen points among voters in their sixties, from 69% to 50%; and it fell from 67% to 60% among fifty-something voters. Meanwhile, it is above average among voters thirty and under – 72%, down from 75% — and under forty, 68% down from 69%. Her support among voters in their forties is above average at 65% but still fell from 72%. In other words, these numbers highlight the nature of the two-front war Takaichi will have to fight, contending with the CRA for older voters – who have cooled towards Takaichi – and with Sanseitō and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP). For the latter, Takaichi has to contend with the LDP’s unpopularity among young voters, who may like her but not her party. Mainichialso found that independents have cooled towards Takaichi, with her government’s support from independents fall from 57% to 46% — and 45% of independents say that they will take the LDP’s “money and politics” issues into consideration in their vote. Finally, Mainichi found that only 24% intend to vote for the LDP in proportional representation voting, the same as in 2024; only 4% intend to vote for Ishin no Kai.
The Nikkei Shimbun also recorded a sixteen-point decline in the Takaichi government’s net approval, with an eight-point decline in approval and an eight-point rise in disapproval. With approval at 67%, her support fell below 70% for the first time in a Nikkei poll. Meanwhile, 40% of voters said that they will support the LDP in PR, but this is the same level of support that the LDP received ahead of the 2024 election. The Centrist Reform Alliance is firmly in second but far behind the LDP with only 13%, followed by the DPFP with 9%, and Ishin and Sanseitō with 7% each. That said, 67% of respondents said that they prefer the continuation of an LDP-Ishin government; only 19% prefer a CRA-led government. Voters overwhelmingly say that inflation is the issue they most want addressed during the campaign, with 54% citing it followed by 34% who said foreign and security policy and 32% who said economic growth.
The Yomiuri Shimbun likewise found a thirteen-point drop in Takaichi’s net approval, with her approval falling four points to 69% and her disapproval climbing nine points to 23%. The poll found that her decision to call a snap election was unpopular – 52% disapproval – but, with the exception of her government’s response to inflation (35% approval, 54% disapproval), her policies poll well. 72% approve of her “responsible fiscal expansionism” and 59% approve of her approach to China. Meanwhile, the paper found that 36% intend to vote for the LDP in PR balloting, broadly in line with its support in each age range, though its support is slightly lower – 33% -- among voters 18-39. The CRA’s support overall is only 9% in PR voting but rises to 17% among voters over 60; however, it is only 3% in the 18-39 bracket.
Kyodo conducted its first “trend” poll of the election campaign and it too found that the government’s support fell, dropping 4.4 points to 63.1%. The poll found that 29.2% say that they will vote for the LDP in PR voting, compared to 11.9% for the CRA. In single-member constituencies, 40% say that they will back a ruling party candidate, 22.8% say that they will vote for an opposition candidate, and 34.9% are undecided. 47.3% opposed the decision to call a snap election, while 44% approved. Inflation is far and away the issue voters most want to see addressed, cited by 59.3%, ahead of pensions and social security (26.8%), growth and jobs (19.3%), and foreign and security policy (18.7%).
