On the brink | This Week in Japanese Politics

The by-election campaigns near their conclusion, the BOJ stands pat as the yen falls, and Asō gets his meeting with Trump

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Polls show that the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) could be poised to win all three by-elections. ・The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has released its proposal for political reform, but its proposal is more modest than Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and Kōmeitō — and the opposition parties — desire.・ A key adviser to the prime minister says the LDP could be at risk of losing power in a general election, but the LDP may still be preparing for a snap election. ・Meanwhile, the yen reached a thirty-four-year-low as the Kishida government warned again that foreign exchange intervention could be coming, while the Bank of Japan left its policies unchanged. ・Asō Tarō secured a meeting with Donald Trump in his second attempt, a meeting that made the Kishida government uneasy coming shortly after Kishida’s official visit to the US.

Politics

The LDP’s Nishikori Norimasa (above) and the CDP’s Kamei Akiko (below) campaign in the Shimane-1 by-election. Photos from social media.

With Shimane-1 the only by-election featuring a head-to-head contest between Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) candidates, the constituency has seen a series of high-profile visitors, including Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, CDP leader Izumi Kenta, former prime minister Noda Yoshihiko, political giant Ozawa Ichirō, and leading LDP officials. Polls suggest that CDP candidate Kamei Akiko leads heading into the final days of the campaign. The CDP may also be leading in the Tokyo-15 by-election, which features nine candidates but no LDP-backed candidate, and the Nagasaki-3 by-election, which features a head-to-head contest between the CDP and Ishin no Kai. A defeat in the by-election could make Kishida’s position as LDP leader more vulnerable.

The LDP announced an independent political reform proposal on Tuesday, 23 April, which includes language obligating lawmakers to certify the financial records of their political organizations; introduces some “guilt by association” penalties for lawmakers’ whose treasurers break the law; and provides some increase in transparency for how political funds are collected and spent. The party’s proposals, however, fall short of what the prime minister and Kōmeitō are seeking. The ruling parties have agreed to negotiations to forge a joint proposal by the first half of May.

Opposition lawmakers attacked Kishida in upper house deliberations for the Liberal Democratic Party’s meager reform proposals, which, they said, showed no sign of reflection upon the causes of the LDP’s kickback scandal. The CDP is proposing, among other things, to introduce a complete ban on political fundraising parties and stricter penalties for lawmakers whose campaign finance records are incomplete. The first meeting of the lower house’s special committee on political reform on 26 April revealed wide gaps between the government and ruling parties on the shape legislation should take.

For the second straight year, Kishida will attend the May Day festivities of RENGO, Japan’s Trade Union Confederation. Kishida, like Abe before him, has courted the trade union federation as part of his efforts to encourage employers to raise wages. (Abe attended the May Day event in 2014.)

In a sign of growing unease within the LDP about the party’s prospects in a general election, Kihara Seiji, one of Kishida’s closest advisers, said in a party meeting on Thursday that “even a change of ruling party” could happen. Kishida, in remarks before the Keizai Doyukai business association, said the current situation was among the worst crises the LDP has faced since its foundation.