Noda returns | Today in Japanese politics

The CDP has a new leader, the LDP race remains tight, Takaichi goes after the BOJ again, and the prime minister is in the United States one last time

Thank you for reading Observing Japan. In light of the volume of activity in Japanese politics, “This Week in Japanese Politics” will become “Today in Japanese Politics” through the LDP election on 27 September. I cannot guarantee it will truly be published daily, but my goal will be to update this feature several times a week for paid subscribers.

If you are looking for timely, forward-looking analysis of the stories in Japans’s politics and policymaking that move markets, I have launched a new service through my business, Japan Foresight LLC. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or for information on how to sign up for a trial or schedule a briefing, please visit our website or reach out to me.

The contest to predict the winners of the LDP and CDP leadership races is now closed. Good luck to all participants!

I joined Bloomberg’s “The Asia Trade” Monday to discuss the LDP leadership election. You can watch the interview here.

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The rundown

Noda Yoshihiko prevailed in the Constitutional Democratic Party’s (CDP) leadership election on 23 September, and will have to move quickly to prepare his party for a general election that could be approaching in the coming weeks. The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) race is nearing its 27 September conclusion, with the top three candidates fighting hard to make it to a runoff. Elsewhere, Ishin no Kai loses another election in Osaka, putting party leaders under pressure heading into a possible election campaign. In economic policy, Takaichi Sanae criticizes the Bank of Japan again, while the LDP candidates debate business taxation. In foreign policy, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio attended a Quad summit in Delaware and is in New York for the UN General Assembly, while Japanese and Chinese officials discuss security issues for Japanese nationals in China. In further reading, bureaucrats weigh in (anonymously) on the LDP race.

CDP leadership election

Former prime minister Noda Yoshihiko speaks after winning the leadership of the Constitutional Democratic Party on 23 September. Source: CDP

The CDP held its leadership election on Monday, 23 September, with former prime minister Noda Yoshihiko winning comfortably if not overwhelmingly in a runoff over CDP founder Edano Yukio, after finishing ahead of Edano, incumbent leader Izumi Kenta, and first-term lawmaker Yoshida Harumi in the first round. NHK summarizes the results here. Noda was the top choice of both the national lawmakers/candidates and local lawmakers and party supporters in the first round, and the national lawmakers/candidates and prefectural chapters in the second round. Noda thanked his competitors for the spirit of fair play and unity that characterized the leadership contest and expressed his determination to retake power from the LDP.

By electing Noda, the CDP is betting that a shift to the center – Noda launched his bid stating that he wanted to appeal to moderate conservatives who may be disaffected with the LDP – can attract more votes  from independents and LDP supporters than the party could lose by breaking ranks with the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and clearing the way for the JCP to field more candidates against CDP candidates. JCP Secretary-General Koike Akira greeted the news of Noda’s election by rejecting cooperation with Noda and declaring that the party will field as many candidates as possible.