No surprises (yet)

Early returns are in line with expectations

The polls closed just over an hour ago, and the early projections based on exit polls are that 1) the Liberal Democratic Party will definitely lose its absolute majority; 2) the LDP-Kōmeitō is definitely in danger of losing its own absolute majority; 3) turnout does not appear to have been any better than in 2021, suggesting that the opposition is faring well even without bringing out dramatically more voters to vote against the LDP.

Looking back to what I wrote yesterday, I think we are already seeing that the LDP’s scandal-implicated candidates are having bad nights so far. NHK has already called Tokyo-11 against Shimomura Hakubun and Tokyo-7 against Marukawa Tamayo, both races I had the LDP loses. Takagi Tsuyoshi, one of the ten candidates running without the LDP’s nomination, also looks on track to lose. Un-nominated LDP candidates have also lost in Fukushima-3, Saitama-6, and Niigata-2. Of the remaining, Hagiuda Kōichi’s in Tokyo-24 remains the one to watch.

On perhaps the most important question of all – will the LDP perform poorly enough that Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru must quit sooner rather than later? – we do not know enough yet. It certainly seems, however, that Ishiba will at the very least be changing his LDP leadership team sooner rather than later. Koizumi Shinjirō has already said he is responsible for the difficult night for the LDP. Even if Ishiba stays, it is hard to see how his secretary-general, Moriyama Hiroshi, stays on.

Otherwise, the early returns point to CDP gains in old strongholds in Tohoku (including Ozawa Ichirō’s reclaiming his Iwate-3 seat); CDP and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) gaining in Aichi; and a lot of races in the greater Kantō still left to call. I think one thing we can say before knowing the final results is that the CDP’s bet on Noda Yoshihiko may well have paid off; without a big increase in turnout, the CDP’s ability to appeal to disaffected LDP voters seems critical, and it is difficult to see the CDP doing that as well with one of the other leaders.

I am chatting with subscribers here as the results come in. Stay tuned for more.