New alignments | This week in Japanese politics

Ruling and opposition party leaders scramble to cement new partnerships, the Bank of Japan holds for now, and Japan and the EU deepen their partnership

Thank you for reading Observing Japan. With the elections behind us, “This Week in Japanese Politics” will resume, published on Friday or Saturday for paid subscribers.

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Japan Foresight clients received the following notes:

• “Ueda asserts the BOJ’s independence,” 31 October

• “With DPFP’s acquiescence, Ishiba on track to form minority government,” 30 October

• “The ruling coalition has been humbled – what happens next?,” 27 October

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The rundown

With the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kōmeitō no longer having a majority in the House of Representatives and no party willing to join their coalition, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru is bracing to head a minority government. The LDP is working on securing a partial agreement with the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), though some of the DPFP’s demands may be difficult for it to satisfy. Ishiba will also have to contend with weak public support, as his approval ratings fell sharply following the election. Meanwhile, Kōmeitō is looking for a new leader, Ishin no Kai may be seeking one too, and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is seeking allies in the new Diet. In economic policy, Ishiba met for the first time with two major advisory councils, while the Bank of Japan’s policy board met and left policy unchanged. Japanese and EU foreign ministers met in Tokyo, the US and Japan held major military exercises around Japan, and Ishiba is preparing to meet with Xi Jinping (and possibly the US president-elect). Plus: Shohei gets his World Series ring!

Politics

The Liberal Democratic Party’s leaders meet to discuss the timing of a special session of the Diet following the 27 October general election. Source: LDP

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has moved quickly to bring victorious independents back into its ranks, including several candidates who lost the party’s support due to their roles in the kickback scandal. The party indicated on Friday, 1 November that it would readmit include Sekō Hiroshige, who received the severe punishment of being asked to leave the LDP but then won in Wakayama-2 as an independent; Hagiuda Kōichi, Hirasawa Katsuei, and Nishimura Yasutoshi, who lost the LDP’s nomination in their constituencies; and Mitazono Satoshi and Hirose Ken, who ran as independents against other LDP candidates and won. With these additions, the ruling coalition will have 221 seats, which could make it easier for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru to win the vote to select the prime minister in the House of Representatives during a special session this month.

The party is aiming for the special session to open on 11 November, and is working to ensure that Ishiba has enough votes to prevail despite the LDP and Kōmeitō’s lacking a majority.

While Ishiba is likely to retain the premiership in the special session, his position remains precarious. In a Kyodo News poll conducted following the general election, the Ishiba government’s support fell more than eighteen points to 32.1 percent, with disapproval at 52.2 percent, though relatively few (28.6 percent) want him to resign, compared with those who say it is not necessary for him to resign (65.7 percent). The approval ratings for the LDP and other parties also shifted. The LDP’s support fell nearly ten points to 31.8 percent; the Constitutional Democratic Party’s (CDP) support climbed nearly nine points to 20.3 percent; and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) more than doubled its support to 9.8 percent, surpassing Ishin no Kai.

Kōmeitō leader Ishii Keiichi formally announces his resignation as party leader on 31 October. Screenshot by author.

Kōmeitō, leaderless after its new leader Ishii Keiichi lost his race for a single-member constituency, will hold a special meeting to select a new leader on 9 November. Ishii’s successor will have to determine how the party recovers from an election that saw its seat total fall by a quarter and its vote total plummet. The party is expected to identify Ishii’s successor by 7 November.