Ishin on the brink?

Japan's third party faces an existential crisis

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Ishin no Kai leader Baba Nobuyuki appears on BS Fuji Prime News on 28 August. Screenshot by author.

It was not too long ago that Ishin no Kai seemed destined to supplant the Constitutional Democratic party (CDP) as the leading opposition party. Following the 2023 unified local elections, when the party won more than 700 local legislative seats, Ishin seemed poised to expand beyond its Kansai stronghold and become the national alternative to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). A Nikkei Shimbun poll following the local elections asked respondents whether they were more hopeful about Ishin or the CDP: 51 percent of respondents said Ishin, compared with only 27 percent who said the CDP. Ishin leader Baba Nobuyuki was talking about fielding hundreds of candidates nationwide in the next general election, while CDP leader Izumi Kenta was facing calls for his resignation after the CDP’s lackluster performance. For much of the rest of the year, Ishin outpolled the CDP, suggesting that it might be able to make the leap to become the primary challenger to the LDP.