Ishiba's bad week continues
Or, beware a prime minister bearing gifts
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As if Ishiba Shigeru was not already facing a string of bad headlines, his week got worse on Thursday when the Asahi Shimbun reported that Ishiba had distributed gift certificates totaling roughly JPY 100,000 (USD 677) each to fifteen first-term Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers, a possible violation of the Political Funds Control law. The gifts were distributed by one of the prime minister’s secretaries ahead of a gathering at the prime minister’s residence on the evening of 3 March.
While Ishiba’s office initially declined to comment on the report, the prime minister quickly reversed course, stating on Thursday evening that he did distribute the gifts, he paid for them out of pocket as an expression of gratitude to the lawmakers’ families, that he had done this kind of thing before, and that this kind of expression of gratitude is distinct from the political funds law’s prohibition on contributions for political activity.
This may well not amount to a significant scandal – to be honest, this feels like thin gruel – but this report suggests that this truly is the period of maximum vulnerability for Ishiba. The closer the June Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections get – which will effectively serve as a skirmish ahead of the upper house elections in July – the harder it will be for the LDP to swap leaders. Therefore, if Ishiba’s opponents in the LDP want to force him out, their best chance is to push for his removal by early April. The result could be leaks aimed at discrediting Ishiba and inducing other lawmakers to call for him to quit, perhaps triggering a snowball that drives him from office.
In some ways, it may be worse for Ishiba that all of the lawmakers who received the gifts from the prime minister returned them, undercutting Ishiba’s claim that there was nothing untoward about the gifts. In an interview with Mainichi, political scientist Iwai Tomoaki suggested that the size of the gifts go beyond conventional understanding of a small gift given to express gratitude, raising suspicions that it is just another example of secret LDP payments. Opposition lawmakers immediately grabbed on to this argument, stating that Ishiba’s clean image was fraudulent, no one at the top of the LDP is clean, and that Ishiba will have to go. As Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Tamaki Yūichirō said, “If this is the truth, it will be difficult [for him] to remain in the prime minister’s post.” Ishiba immediately rejected these calls for his resignation.
Ultimately, this issue just shows how little margin for error Ishiba has. Even if there are no new revelations, Ishiba’s argument that there was nothing illegal about them holds up, and the issue fails to grab the public’s attention, it will still occupy precious parliamentary time in the coming days, revive questions about the LDP’s campaign finance practices, and dent Ishiba’s public image. The Constitutional Democrats have already called for a thorough investigation. Opposition lawmakers have also tried to tie the issue to the public’s concerns about the rising cost of living, noting that while households are struggling with higher prices for household staples, Ishiba is doling out lavish gifts to LDP lawmakers. These accusations suggest that a certain amount of political gamesmanship is at work. Of course, the worst-case scenario for Ishiba is that there were in fact legal issues with the gifts or that he has other skeletons in his closet that undercut his image, critically weakening his approval ratings to the point that even his allies in the LDP begin deserting him, at which point his exit will become a foregone conclusion.
One way or another, we should be prepared for the remaining weeks of March to be extraordinarily fraught for Ishiba and for Japan.