Has Kishida's support found its floor?
Two polls show stable headline numbers, but plenty of warning signs
New polls from the Nikkei Shimbun and the Yomiuri Shimbun – both of which have been generally among the more favorable towards the government – conducted 22-24 March suggest that for the moment public attitudes towards the Kishida administration have stabilized, but there is no shortage of dissatisfaction about its decisions.
The approval ratings in these two polls are virtually identical. In Yomiuri, net approval is -37 (25% approval/62% disapproval); in Nikkei, it is -40 (26%/66%). In February, those figures were -37 and -42 respectively. This stability may reflect that while the hearings in the Diet regarding the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) kickback scandal have not generated favorable assessments of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and his administration, they also have not delivered any particularly damaging bombshells either.
To be sure, the public is unhappy with both the government and the LDP over their handling of the scandal. In Yomiuri, only 5% said they were convinced by the testimony of senior LDP members in the lower and upper house politics ethics councils, compared with 81% who said they were not. Those figures were 3% and 88% in the Nikkei poll. In Yomiuri, only 28% think the LDP’s rule changes will restore trust in the party, compared with 64% who do not, and 83% think senior party officials linked to the scandal should be punished harshly. In Nikkei, 78% think it is still necessary for lawmakers involved in the funding scheme to testify.
The LDP especially is paying the price for the scandal. In Nikkei, the party’s approval was 28%, a three-point bump relative to February but still below 30% for the second-straight month. The LDP’s support was even lower in Yomiuri, 23% (-1). Nikkei, asking who respondents would vote for in the proportional representation voting in a general election, found that the LDP would receive 28% and Kōmeitō 3%, but, as in other polls from last week, the ruling parties are trailing the opposition parties together, which are polling roughly 41%, led by the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) with 14%, Ishin no Kai with 13%, the Reiwa Shinsengumi with 5%, the Japanese Communist Party and the Democratic Party for the People with 4% each, and the Social Democratic Party with 1%.
The public is not necessarily enamored with the opposition: Yomiuri found that only 27% approve of its response to the scandal, while 61% disapprove. Only 13% said that they feel confident in the ability of current opposition parties to compete with the LDP, compared with 78% who do not. Nevertheless, the scandal has clearly created an opening for the opposition parties even if there has not been a dramatic boom in their support.
There is little good news for Kishida himself in either poll. In Nikkei, 30% want him replaced immediately; 56% say he should stay on until his term ends in September. Only 10% want him to stay as long as possible. In Yomiuri, he is the fifth-most-popular choice to win the September leadership election, behind Ishiba Shigeru, Koizumi Shinjirō, Kamikawa Yōko, and Kōno Tarō with only 7% support. Thus far, there does not appear to be an upsurge in support for the prime minister on the basis of policy achievements. The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to end negative rates was popular in both polls – supported by 60% to 24% in Yomiuri and 56% to 27% in Nikkei – but then the BOJ’s easing policies were never wildly popular. Meanwhile, the public is skeptical about the outlook for wage increases, with Nikkei finding that only 15% think the government can deliver real wage increases and Yomiuri finding that only 17% think that their financial circumstances will improve going forward. Finally, the government’s new policy on arms exports, the product of lengthy negotiations between the LDP and Kōmeitō, is not doing Kishida any favors either, with both polls showing the public evenly divided on its merits (43% to 43% in Yomiuri, 45% to 45% in Nikkei).
Kishida therefore heads into April with his approval ratings stable but still teetering. He may get a little bump from his state visit to the United States, but the real tests will be first, how he resolves the question of who to punish and how to punish for the kickback scandal, and two, whether the LDP can prevail in the Shimane by-election (or the other two races, if the LDP is able to find suitable candidates). By the end of April we may know more as to whether the stable numbers in the Yomiuri and Nikkei polls this month represent the nadir or a temporary break before another plunge — and whether Kishida still has a path to another term.
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