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I joined CNBC Asia’s Squawk Box Asia on Monday morning JST to discuss the LDP race. A video clip is available here.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) formally began its leadership campaign on Monday, 22 September, with five candidates competing for the party presidency. The party will vote on Saturday, 4 October.

In the first round, the party’s 295 national lawmakers will cast ballots, while the party’s 915,574 dues-paying members – a thirteen-percent decline compared to the 2024 leadership election – will vote through 3 October, with rank-and-file votes used to determine how to distribute an additional 295 votes proportionally. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the party will move immediately to a runoff for the top two candidates in the first round. In the second round, only the 295 lawmakers and the 47 prefectural chapters will vote.

The outlook

As the leadership race begins, Koizumi Shinjirō likely enters as the presumptive favorite, both due to his relative popularity among the public – second in most polls, leading when looking only at LDP supporters – and his robust support among the party’s lawmakers. He received the most votes from lawmakers in the first round last year (75), and could be poised to win the bulk of first-round votes won by the outgoing Ishiba Shigeru – including Ishiba’s rank-and-file support – as well as by Kōno Tarō (who is not running this year and has already endorsed Koizumi) and Katō Katsunobu, who is leading Koizumi’s campaign. He has already signaled that he is working to broader his appeal across the party and, if he can avoid major mistakes or gaffes, is well positioned to at least make a runoff if not win outright in the first round.

Takaichi Sanae, who finished second last year after placing first in the first round, is still a strong candidate but may nevertheless struggle to replicate her performance last year unless she can bring Asō Tarō around again. Whereas Koizumi has significant chunks of potential votes to gain among lawmakers since several of the candidates not running this year are more aligned with his views, Takaichi not only has to reckon with the thinning of the LDP right’s ranks due to electoral losses but also the possibility that there are fewer right-leaning rank-and-file LDP voters than last year. Of course, she also has to contend with Kobayashi Takayuki’s candidacy, which gives conservative lawmakers, particularly younger lawmakers, an alternative.

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The rundown

With Hayashi Yoshimasa formally entering the race on Thursday, Takaichi Sanae and Koizumi Shinjirō remain the last candidates yet to declare. Takaichi will make her formal announcement on 19 September, Koizumi on 20 September. The campaign for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership remains relatively subdued, including the structure of the campaign itself: the party has outlined a limited schedule of party candidate forums before the 4 October vote. Meanwhile, the general tendency among most of the candidates has been to moderate some of their bolder positions as they seek to maximize their support among lawmakers. There have been few overt clashes between the candidates ahead of the formal start of the campaign on 22 September.

The LDP campaign

Hayashi Yoshimasa enters the race

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa held a press conference on Thursday, 18 September to announce his candidacy formally. In the press conference, Hayashi spoke more about policy – he emphasized the importance of raising real wages and building out a growth strategy, carrying forward the policies of the Kishida and Ishiba governments in which he served – than the importance of overcoming the political challenges that the LDP faces. He has suggested that the party’s upper house defeat meant it would have to reconsider its campaign pledge to provide cash payments to households for stimulus, and emphasized that he would be prepared to work with other parties to govern.

Ultimately, Hayashi leaned into his image as a genial policy wonk, instead of speaking directly to the sense of crisis in the LDP since the upper house elections. His approach may also reflect the reality that as a central figure in the past two administrations, Hayashi is constrained in how much change he can promise.

Takaichi prepares to launch

In a brief statement to the press on Thursday ahead of a full announcement on Friday, 19 September, Takaichi Sanae stressed the need for “strong politics” and political stability to overcome the crises Japan faces, suggested that the failure to state clearly what the LDP wants to achieve is responsible for political instability, and said that the leadership election is an “excellent opportunity to articulate what the LDP should aim to achieve as a party.” In short, in contrast to some of the other candidates – to varying degrees virtually every other candidate has softened positions they took last year to broaden their appeal, with Kobayashi literally referring to a “moderate conservatism” in his Tuesday press conference – Takaichi is preparing to run as an unapologetic “Abe-ist” again.

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The rundown

In this special edition of This Week in Japanese Politics, the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership race takes shape. Five candidates, all veterans of last year’s race, have either declared their candidacy formally (Motegi Toshimitsu) or signaled their intent (Kobayashi Takayuki, Hayashi Yoshimasa, Takaichi Sanae, and Koizumi Shinjirō). Meanwhile, a new public opinion poll suggests that the public does not expect much from the leadership contest — and there is a huge gap between how LDP supporters and non-LDP supporters view the candidates. Another factor in the race is the positioning of other parties, whose leaders may try to influence the outcome of the race. Plus: the Constitutional Democrats reshuffle their leadership, to mixed reviews.

The LDP campaign

Candidates

Koizumi takes it slowly

With nine days until the formal start of the campaign, Koizumi Shinjirō is taking his time before jumping in. Although there was some tabloid reporting suggesting he might not enter the race at all, that was dispelled by a Sankei scoop saying that he is running and will make an announcement sometime next week. Instead, Nikkei reports that he is huddling with supporters and allies – notably onetime Kishida policy adviser Kihara Seiji – to hammer out a policy program and avoid some of the missteps that plagued his campaign last year.

Takaichi quiet

Takaichi Sanae, the other presumptive frontrunner, has been proceeding carefully as well. She will also declare her candidacy next week but has in the meantime been huddling with supporters – she met with roughly twenty on Thursday – as she seeks to launch a bid to, in the words of lawmaker Kikawada Hitoshi, “remake the LDP as a conservative party.” She also, interestingly, met with former prime minister Kishida Fumio on Thursday to inform him of her intention to run; the two cooperated in the 2021 leadership election that elevated Kishida to the premiership but Kishida worked against her last year.

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I joined Bloomberg’s The Asia Trade to discuss Ishiba’s resignation.

I was quoted in the New York Times and the Financial Times discussing the resignation and the LDP leadership election.

The LDP leadership race

Senior LDP officials met on Monday, 8 September to discuss the schedule and rules for the leadership election to replace Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru. The party is strongly considering a “full spectrum” election, in which the LDP’s dues-paying members would control as many first round votes as the LDP’s national lawmakers; both Koizumi Shinjirō and Takaichi Sanae, the presumptive frontrunners, endorsed a full election. The party will make its decision on Tuesday, 9 September. The earliest possible date for a full leadership election would be 4 October, with the filing date being 22 September; this appears to be the most likely arrangement.

Motegi Toshimitsu, former LDP secretary-general, foreign minister, and economy minister became the first to express his interest in running for the LDP’s leadership on Monday, 8 September. He expressed his confidence in being able to secure the twenty endorsements needed to run.

Takaichi, last year’s runner-up, is determined to run and is nearing an announcement, once she lines up her twenty endorsers.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, meanwhile, met with former prime minister Kishida Fumio, to whose faction Hayashi once belonged, and communicated his intent to run for the leadership. Hayashi finished fourth in the 2024 leadership election.

Finance Minister Katō Katsunobu, who finished last in the nine-candidate field in 2024 and also had some of his endorsers unusually vote for other candidates, said Monday that he is considering another leadership bid.

Ishiba said that he will not prevent sitting cabinet ministers from pursuing the party leadership but expects that any members of his cabinet who run will continue to attend to their official duties.

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The rundown

In the aftermath of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) meeting to discuss its upper house election defeat on 2 September — discussed here — opposition to Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s remaining in office has surged, as senior and junior lawmakers, sub-cabinet officials, and even a cabinet minister have voiced their support for an early leadership election, or for Ishiba to resign before the 8 September vote. Estimates suggest that the motion for a recall election will likely pass. Ishiba has remained defiant, but is running out of options, particularly after suggestions that he might call a snap election were widely criticized. Despite this political crisis, however, Ishiba tried to focus on economic policy, announcing plans to move forward with a stimulus package and meeting Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo to discuss the outlook for Japan’s economy. Finally, Akazawa Ryōsei returned to Washington to secure the implementation of promised tariff levels by the Trump administration, but only after signing a memorandum of understanding with the US government that grants highly favorable terms to the US regarding the Japanese government’s pledged investments in the US as part of the agreement.

The Ishiba crisis

After the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) finished its post-mortem report on the upper house elections, opposition to Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s remaining as party leader and prime minister has surged as the party prepares for a vote on 8 September as to whether to hold an early leadership election.

As Ishiba has grown increasingly desperate, he has hinted that he could call a snap election in response to the recall motion in a bid to reimpose discipline on his party, presumably because he might, like Koizumi Junichirō, use a snap election to expel intra-party rivals from the LDP. The problem is that the suggestion that Ishiba would use his power to dissolve the Diet to settle a purely party matter – Koizumi may have been battling with his own party but was also trying to move legislation through the Diet over the wishes of some members of his party – has attracted widespread criticism as a gesture that would be for entirely selfish reasons and which many in the LDP believe would be devastating for the party. It has likely intensified support for a recall election, triggering fears that Ishiba could act recklessly and needs to be removed. That said, there are significant procedural hurdles that could prevent Ishiba from calling a snap election. There is no precedent for calling a snap election when the Diet is in recess, though it is theoretically possible. More significantly, Ishiba would need the unanimous consent of the cabinet to act, which he is unlikely to get (Koizumi Shinjirō has already spoken out against a snap election). While Ishiba could, like Koizumi’s father, dismiss resistant ministers and act in their stead, if more than one or two ministers oppose a snap election, this work-around could quickly become untenable. Kōmeitō, facing its own crisis, is not enthusiastic about a snap election either.

It is possible that Ishiba could resign before the party vote, as suggested by Tamura Norihisa, a onetime Ishiba ally, on Friday evening. Perhaps as a sign that Ishiba is weighing his options, the prime minister met with Koizumi Shinjirō and former prime minister Suga Yoshihide for two hours on Saturday evening, during which, Sankei reports, they urged Ishiba to resign voluntarily.

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The week ahead

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to finalize its much-anticipated review of the upper house elections on Tuesday, 2 September.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Himino Ryōzō will deliver remarks in Hokkaido on 2 September.

The LDP’s Asō faction will meet on Wednesday, 3 September.

Japan and Australia will have a national security 2+2 meeting on Friday, 5 September.

The Japanese government will release the monthly household and labor surveys for July on 5 September.

The Nara District Court will hold another pre-trial hearing for accused Abe Shinzō assassin Yamagami Tetsuya on 5 September.

Ibaraki and Mie prefectures have gubernatorial elections on Sunday, 7 September.

Politics

The LDP’s election management committee announced on Wednesday, 27 August that it would begin canvassing LDP lawmakers and prefectural chapter representatives on whether to move up the party’s next leadership election from 2027 to this year – the party’s “recall” process – after the LDP finalizes its review of the upper house elections on 2 September. The committee decided that electors will have to sign their names publicly to their votes, presumably raising the costs for a vote in favor of the recall motion. A Kyodo survey of prefectural chapters found that six chapters will definitely vote for recall, another four are strongly considering it, and only one (Gifu) has said that they will vote against it. It is harder to read the situation among lawmakers, though several junior cabinet members have suggested that they favor a recall and could resign their posts in the coming days.

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The week ahead

The LDP’s election committee will meet again on Wednesday, 27 August to discuss the process of canvassing the party about a recall leadership election.

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will host a visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday, 29 August.

The government will release the August monthly economic report on Wednesday, 27 August.

Bank of Japan policy board member Nakagawa Junko will deliver remarks in Yamaguchi prefecture on Thursday, 28 August.

Tokyo’s August inflation numbers will be released on Friday, 29 August.

Politics

The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) election committee met on Tuesday, 19 August to select new members to fill out the eleven-member body and begin discussions of how to canvass LDP lawmakers and prefectural chapter heads on whether to hold a recall election that could result in Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s ouster. Because this process has never been used before, the committee is discussing basic questions like whether voters will cast ballots or submit letters or whether they should sign their names or not. It is possible that the committee could force party members to sign their names to discourage some moderates from voting for a recall. The committee will continue to deliberate even as the timeline for the party’s review of the upper house elections – the release of which was supposed to be a key trigger for leadership changes – has slipped from August into September.

The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) held a meeting on Friday, 22 August to discuss the party’s review of its performance in the upper house elections last month. The report reflected on the party’s failure to appeal to new and young voters in particular, contributing to its finishing fourth in proportional representation (PR) voting, focusing heavily on how to improve the party’s digital outreach, especially to the young. However, after lawmakers accused party leaders of soft-pedaling their description of the party’s performance, the report will be revised to reflect the consensus belief that the party lost the election and faces a severe crisis. Party leader Noda Yoshihiko said on 24 August that he has not made any decisions about personnel changes in response to the report.

The CDP’s ally, organized labor federation RENGO, will conduct its own review of the upper house elections by early October amidst concerns that the organized labor’s ability to mobilize its members has declined – labor-backed PR candidates received the fewest votes since the current system began in 2001 – and that the CDP itself is facing an existential crisis that compromises its effectiveness as a partner. The federation also has concerns about the expensive policy proposals of the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), its other political ally.

DPFP leader Tamaki Yūichirō, meanwhile, said on Friday, 22 August that the DPFP will aim for at least 51 seats in the next general election, which would enable it to submit budget-related bills and – importantly – no-confidence motions independently.

On 18 August, Kishida Fumio met with members of his former faction amidst the LDP’s ongoing deliberations over Prime Minister Ishiba’s fate.

Ishiba met with former prime minister Koizumi Junichirō for dinner on Sunday, 24 August and had a wide-ranging discussion about how to manage the push within the party for a recall vote, how to work with US President Donald Trump, and how to address the eightieth anniversary of the end of World War II.

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Economic policy

The Ishiba government may be considering revising its plans for a supplemental budget in light of its electoral defeat and the unpopularity of its proposal to distribute JPY 20,000 payments to each individual, though it is unclear whether it will withdraw the proposal entirely, limit it to lower-income households, or make other adjustments. Both Ishin no Kai co-leader Yoshimura Hirofumi and CDP leader Noda Yoshihiko said that their parties will not vote for a budget that includes the ruling coalition’s original proposal.

Although the ruling parties have joined discussions with opposition parties about abolishing the temporary gasoline tax, the two sides are once again struggling to overcome the question of how to pay the estimated JPY 1.5tn price tag for the tax reduction, with the opposition parties themselves divided on the question of whether the tax cut even needs to be offset. The DPFP, for example, thinks that the possibility of a primary fiscal surplus means that the tax can be cut without hurting the government’s finances.

DPFP leader Tamaki Yūichirō said that if the opposition parties can agree on a consensus plan for reducing the consumption tax, they will submit a compromise bill in 2026. The opposition parties’ campaign proposals ranged from the Constitutional Democratic Party’s (CDP) plan for reducing the consumption tax on foodstuffs to zero for one year to the DPFP’s call for an across-the-board cut from 10% to 5% to other parties’ calls for eliminating the tax entirely.

The Ishiba government is preparing legislation for submission to the Diet in 2026 that will revise the economic security promotion law to enable public-private partnerships for initiatives in developing countries to strengthen supply chains for critical goods.

In trade data for July released on 20 August, Japan’s exports to the United States fell 10.1% year-over-year, while its automobile exports to the United States fell 28.4% in value terms and 3.2% in terms of volume, reflecting a conscious effort by Japanese automakers to prioritize exports of smaller, cheaper vehicles. Japan’s overall exports fell 2.6% year-over-year, the third decline in a row, and Japan ran a deficit for the first time in two months.

The Ministry of Finance (MOF) will use a long-term interest rate projection of 2.6% in the FY2026 budget, the highest projection since 2009, and the ministry expects that interest payments will surpass JPY 30tn for the first time.

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Foreign and security policy

Prime Minister Ishiba hosted a visit by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Saturday, 23 August, the first time a South Korean president made Japan his first destination for an overseas trip. The leaders used the summit to recommit to efforts to strengthen bilateral relations that began under Lee’s predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol. The leaders also announced that they would enable their nationals to apply for a second working holiday visa. (readout)

Japan hosted the ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development from 20-22 August, during which Ishiba announced a committee that would review the possibilities for free trade agreements with and policies to promote Japanese investment in African countries. Japan used the conference to articulate a way to help African partners navigate between the Scylla of US protectionism and the Charybdis of China’s “debt trap” diplomacy, prioritizing investment in human capital formation and industrial development. Ishiba himself held thirty-four bilateral meetings over the course of the conference.

Meanwhile, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Japan this week, the two governments will announce a new framework for economic security cooperation as both seek to reduce their dependence on China.

Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi hosted Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul for the first strategic dialogue between the Japanese and German foreign ministers. The two ministers agreed to strengthen cooperation within the G7 and accelerate the pace of discussions between Tokyo and Berlin, agreeing to hold another 2+2 meeting of foreign and defense ministers soon as well as a second strategic dialogue later this year. (readout)

On Saturday, 23 August, Prime Minister Ishiba toured the JS Kaga, which is currently being converted from a helicopter carrier to a light aircraft carrier capable of carrying Japan’s F-35B fighters. Ishiba also toured the HMS Prince of Wales, which is still visiting Japan.

In September, Defense Minister Nakatani Gen will make the first visit to Seoul by a sitting defense minister since 2015.

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Further reading

A multi-part series (one, two) on Japan’s ambitions for its arms industry. (Nikkei)

The challenges facing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa as Ishiba hangs in the balance. (Asahi)

An interview with economist Adam Posen on the risks of a fiscal shock in Japan. (Nikkei)

Is a busy diplomatic calendar keeping Ishiba’s premiership alive? (Nikkei)

A documentary on the upper house election from the Mainichi Shimbun.

Government data shows that in twenty municipalities the share of the foreign population has surpassed 10%, topped by Shimukappu village in Hokkaido, whose population is 33.8% foreigners. (Sankei)

What’s driving Ishiba’s changing fortunes? (Tōyō Keizai)

The LDP’s conservatives are still struggling to agree on who they want to succeed Ishiba. (Nikkan Gendai)

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The week ahead

The Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) opens on Wednesday, 20 August and will run through 22 August.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit Japan from 23 to 24 August.

The Japanese government will release data on June machinery orders (20 August), July trade (20 August), July tourism (20 August), and July inflation (22 August).

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The rundown

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held a general meeting of lawmakers on Friday, 8 August, with multiple lawmakers calling for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru to step down; Ishiba remains in place but other efforts to unseat him are moving forward. Meanwhile, trade negotiator Akazawa Ryōsei returned to Washington seeking clarifications from the Trump administration on several outstanding issues in the bilateral trade agreement. While Akazawa said that the US admitted an error that raised tariffs on some products to unexpectedly high levels, it is unclear when that error will be corrected or when automobile tariffs will be reduced to agreed-upon levels. Otherwise, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released notes from its latest policy meeting, showing the bank is trying to ascertain when it can confidently resume raising interest rates. Finally, Prime Minister Ishiba spoke at the memorial ceremony for the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, calling for a world without nuclear weapons (and denying that there is any contradiction in also relying on the US nuclear umbrella). Plus: more in-depth reporting on the US-Japan trade talks. All of this and more in a new Today in Japanese Politics.

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The rundown

The extraordinary session of the Diet closed on 5 August after separate hearings focused on the US-Japan trade deal in the budget committees of both houses, in which Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru faced intense scrutiny for his handling of the talks. In light of concerns about the implementation of a reduction in automobile tariffs, trade negotiator Akazawa Ryōsei is heading back to Washington. Maehara Seiji is out from Ishin no Kai’s leadership, while Kamiya Sōhei met with a leader of Germany’s AfD. The Ishiba government marked a landmark minimum wage increase and a historic arms sale to Australia, while announcing a significant agricultural policy shift. Plus: a prefecture-by-prefecture look at how support for each party shifted in the upper house elections. All of this and more in a new Today in Japanese Politics.

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The week ahead

On Monday, 4 August, the budget committee of the House of Representatives will hold a hearing on the US-Japan trade agreement.

The upper house’s budget committee will hold a hearing on Tuesday, 5 August, after which the extraordinary session will close.

There will be ceremonies marking the eightieth anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima on Wednesday, 6 August and Nagasaki on Saturday, 9 August.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will hold a plenary meeting of lawmakers on Friday, 8 August that will debate the party’s electoral defeat and Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s future.

On Friday, 8 August, there will be several major economic data releases. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases the results of the June household survey, the Ministry of Finance releases the June balance of payments, the Cabinet Office releases its economy watchers survey for July, and the Bank of Japan releases the summary of opinions from its recent policy meeting.

Public opinion

The Observing Japan public opinion tracker has been updated through 3 August, incorporating a new poll from TBS/JNN in which the government’s net approval rose by seven points.

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Thank you for reading Observing Japan. This post is available to paid subscribers. Given the intensity of political news, I will be switching from a weekly to a daily or every-other-day format for these updates for the time being.

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The rundown

An extraordinary session of the Diet opened on Friday, 1 August to select officers and committee chairs. Multiple parties held meetings this week to review the results of the upper house elections and debate how to revive their fortunes, while one of those parties could be thinking about joining the ruling coalition. Anti-Ishiba agitation within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) continues ahead of an 8 August plenary meeting of lawmakers. The Ishiba government, meanwhile, is studying the impact of US tariffs but also waiting for signs that the Trump administration will implement an agreement to reduce automobile tariffs. The Ishiba government is also watching what its G7 peers are intending to do with respect to recognizing a Palestinian state. Plus: another promotion for Koizumi?

Public opinion

The Observing Japan public opinion tracker has been updated through 1 August.

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Paid subscribers will receive my analytical forecast of the upper house campaign within the next week; other subscribers will have the opportunity to purchase the report. I will also hold a call to launch the report next week. Stay tuned for more information.

The rundown

Ruling and opposition party leaders continue to make their preparations for the upper house elections — and hone their appeals to voters — ahead of the start of the campaign on 3 July. New polls show the government’s support dipping again. Meanwhile, the finance ministry reported that tax receipts reached another new high in FY2024. Finally, ahead of the expiration of the exemption from “reciprocal” tariffs, US President Donald Trump warned that automotive tariffs will stay in place as seven rounds of ministerial talks have failed to achieve a breakthrough. Plus: the impact of Abe Shinzō’s assassination while campaigning during the last upper house campaign will be felt during this campaign. All of this and more in a new This Week in Japanese Politics.

The week ahead

The Quad foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday, 1 July.

The cabinet office releases its consumer confidence survey on Tuesday, 1 July.

The upper house campaign will formally begin on Thursday, 3 July.

Ahead of the campaign, party leaders will hold a debate at the National Press Club on Wednesday, 2 July.

Bank of Japan policy board member Takata Hajime will deliver remarks in Mie prefecture on 3 July.

Public opinion

The Observing Japan public opinion tracker has been updated with new polls from NHK, the Yomiuri Shimbun, and Mainichi Shimbun. Analysis of the new polls is here:

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In case you missed it, I previously published posts on the rise of Sanseitō and the implications of the Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections.

The rundown

The ordinary session of the Diet concluded on 22 June, and the Ishiba government formally set the date for the upper house elections for 20 July. The ruling and opposition parties are finalizing their nominations and platforms, and the critical number for the campaign is 50, the number of seats that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kōmeitō need to win to preserve a majority in the upper house. Meanwhile, a member of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board argued that the bank needs to be prepared to raise rates again, even as the BOJ released notes from the policy board meeting this month showing the concerns that led the bank to revise its plan for reducing bond purchases. Finally, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru decided not to attend the NATO summit in the Netherlands this week, meaning that he missed seeing US President Donald Trump again amidst reports of tensions over defense spending as well as the ongoing trade talks, which will continue at the ministerial level this week. Plus: post-mortems on the Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections. All of this and more in a new This Week in Japanese Politics.

Public opinion

The Observing Japan public opinion tracker has been updated with new polls from Kyodo and Asahi TV.

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In case you missed it, I analyzed a new round of polling on Monday.

The rundown

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru started the week in Canada for the G7 summit and, while he had productive meetings with his counterparts, he returned home without the hoped-for breakthrough in trade talks with the United States. Meanwhile, the war of nerves between the government and opposition continues in the final days of the Diet session as the opposition parties united to unseat a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) committee chair and Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) Noda Yoshihiko has still not formally ruled out a no-confidence motion. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged but tinkered with its tapering plans, while new data showed a marked decline in Japanese exports to the US (and another big increase in inbound tourism). Plus: against the backdrop of the BOJ meeting this week, some deep dives into the market for Japanese government bonds. All of this and more in a new This Week in Japanese Politics.

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The rundown

With the likelihood of a no-confidence motion and double election receding, the ruling and opposition parties are stepping up their preparations — and attacks — ahead of the upper house elections, which will likely be held on 20 July. Party leaders previewed their attacks in a leaders’ debate on 11 June, while the parties will test their arguments on the campaign trail for the 22 June Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections. The government approved its Basic Policy for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform ahead of the budgetary process for next year, ,while Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjirō met with retail industry leaders to discuss how to widen the distribution of rice from government stockpiles. Meanwhile, the US government approved Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel, with an important condition, while a Japanese company signed an agreement to increase its purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, but another round of US-Japan trade talks did not appear to yield a breakthrough. Plus: the Bank of Japan hints that it might pare back its reductions in bond purchases. All of this and (much) more in a new, extra-long This Week in Japanese Politics.

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In case you missed it, I wrote a post earlier today on new polls showing that Ishiba’s approval ratings are recovering.

I also wrote a post Friday on why a no-confidence motion looks like a losing proposition for Noda Yoshihiko, which, as this edition of This Week in Japanese Politics suggests, a view that Noda and other Constitutional Democratic Party leaders may share.

The rundown

With Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leaders casting doubt about a no-confidence motion and other opposition parties disinclined to co-sponsor it, the likelihood of a no-confidence motion is falling. Meanwhile, the Ishiba government is finalizing its basic policy for the next fiscal year, as well as new plans for economic reform and regional revitalization. Akazawa Ryōsei returned empty handed from the fifth round of talks with his US counterparts, and, while he may hold another round of talks before the G7 summit next week, he said it is unlikely that the two governments will be able to announce a deal during the summit. Plus: looking ahead to Tokyo’s metropolitan assembly election. All of this and more in a new This Week in Japanese Politics.

The week ahead

Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and opposition party leaders will hold the third of a series of leaders’ debate on Wednesday, 11 June.

The cabinet’s monthly economic outlook report will be released on Wednesday, 11 June.

The campaign for the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election – which will be held on Sunday, 22 June – will officially begin on Friday, 13 June.

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I have a new essay at Nikkei Asia, arguing why it is too early to count Ishiba out. It is available here.

The rundown

The upper house debated rice policy, as the Ishiba government seeks a balance between consumers and producers, as well as a broader national interest in food security. Meanwhile, as the Diet session enters its final weeks, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru let slip a warning that if the opposition submits a no-confidence motion, he will preempt a vote by calling a snap election. Over the weekend, Ishiba conferred with trade negotiator Akazawa Ryōsei about his latest talks with the Trump administration and as he prepares for the next round of talks later this week. Defense Minister Nakatani Gen spent the weekend talking with his counterparts on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Plus: a call for revising Japan’s three non-nuclear principles. All of this and more in a new This Week in Japanese Politics.

The week ahead

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo will deliver public remarks on Tuesday, 3 June.

South Korea will hold its presidential election on Tuesday, 3 June.

The upper house will begin its deliberations on the revised pension reform bill on Wednesday, 4 June.

Trade negotiator Akazawa Ryōsei will travel to Washington for the fifth round of bilateral talks on Thursday, 5 June.

BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will deliver a speech to Japan Society of Monetary Economics on Saturday, 7 June.

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If you are looking for timely, forward-looking analysis of the stories in Japans’s politics and policymaking that move markets, I have launched a new service through my business, Japan Foresight LLC. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or for information on how to sign up for a trial or schedule a briefing, please visit our website or reach out to me.

I spoke with River Davis of the New York Times for an article about the politics of Japanese debt.

The rundown

The Ishiba government’s position improved this week as the deal with the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) on pension reform led to the Diet’s passing the bill on Friday. The compromise reduced the risk of a no-confidence motion. Meanwhile, even as retailers began selling reduced-price rice from government stockpiles, Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Tamaki Yūichirō had to apologize for a belittling comment about the rice, contributing the perception of the DPFP’s fading fortunes. The US and Japan held their fourth round of trade talks, with trade negotiator Akazawa Ryōsei suggesting that progress has been made though there are few tangible signs of a breakthrough. Plus: China may be ready to relax its import restrictions on Japanese fisheries. All of this and more in a new This Week in Japanese Politics.

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If you are looking for timely, forward-looking analysis of the stories in Japans’s politics and policymaking that move markets, I have launched a new service through my business, Japan Foresight LLC. For more information about Japan Foresight’s services or for information on how to sign up for a trial or schedule a briefing, please visit our website or reach out to me.

I will also hold a monthly call for paid subscribers in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for more information about how to join.

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The rundown

The ruling parties and the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) make a deal on pension reform, shifting the outlook for a no-confidence motion. Meanwhile, the opposition parties — and the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) agriculture tribe — have been backfooted by Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjirō’s swift campaign to reverse surging rice prices. Trade negotiator Akazawa Ryōsei, just returned from talks in the United States, will be returning later this week for the next round, suggesting progress, though there are few details about whether the gap between the two governments has narrowed. Plus: the dangers of rising government bond yields. All of this and more in a new This Week in Japanese Politics.

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